Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1553
Статья научная
Global economic challenges, along with a slowdown in the world economy growth, lead to the need to consider foreign economic activity (FEA) as a factor affecting regional development. Due to non-resource exports, both quantitative (increasing the exports volume, employment, investment inflows, tax base) and qualitative tasks (diversifying the economy, increasing competitiveness and innovation, production of high-value products) are solved. In this regard, a scientifically based assessment of the FEA role in the regional development strategies is relevant which can be the basis for developing a set of mechanisms and tools for the region’s foreign economic development. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the FEA development impact on the regional development by identifying the reflection of its prospects in the development strategies of Russian regions and different countries’ regions. The object of the research is FEA of the selected regions of the Russian Federation, developed countries (Germany, USA), and EAEU countries (Belarus and Kazakhstan). The scientific novelty is to identify the relations between the degree of economic development and FEA countries, and the reflection of promising areas and tools for the FEA development in the development strategies of their regions. The methodological base is represented by the approaches to defining the determinants and principles of FEA support. There were included the following methods: an indicators’ comparative analysis of the economic and FEA development levels of the selected countries and the prospects for the FEA development (in areas, including export of services; non-resource export; export diversification; etc.) in their regions’ strategies. The analysis results confirmed the assumption that the reflection of the directions and tools of FEA development is paid attention to both in developed and developing economies, but different countries have their own specifics. The analysis allows taking into account the experience of developed countries and leading exporters, as well as the EAEU members, when working out individual strategies and program documents of the regions in the FEA field.
Бесплатно
The impact of formal and informal institutions on innovative economic development
Статья научная
Formal institutions are important elements of the institutional structure of the national innovation system. The development of legislative regulation of the Russian innovation system fits within the framework of the administrative state evolution: the growth of the scope of regulation is accompanied by an increase in the number of laws and by-laws. Although the dynamism of formal institutions is an essential condition for adapting to changing environment, it also increases uncertainty and therefore has a negative impact on actors. The analysis of the functioning of formal institutions can be conducted from two perspectives: deductive and inductive. The deductive approach is based on the analysis of the legislative regulation-associated costs and is close to the new institutional economics tradition. The inductive approach, which is used in this paper, follows original institutionalism and narrative economics scholarly tradition. The following problems associated with the functioning of formal institutions have been highlighted in the analysis of narratives about the Russian innovation system: the lack of the necessary legislation, non-complementarity and inconsistency of laws and by-laws, the imperfection of existing legislation, lack of real support for innovations in the formal creation of relevant legal acts, funds and organizations, etc. An econometric modeling of formal and informal institutions influence on the innovative development of the economy has been carried out. Significant variables have been identified including the general indicators of formal institutions and social capital. It leads to the conclusion that the improvement of formal institutions is necessary for the innovative activity development, and high social capital contributes to building trust and, therefore, promotes knowledge sharing and cooperation, which are crucial for innovation initiation.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The aim of the study is to assess the impact of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We show that physical distance is the key parameter in assessing the influence of geographical factors on trade within the framework of gravity dependence. The estimates obtained confirm the validity of the hypothesis concerning a long-term reduction in the negative impact of physical distance calculated in various ways on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating the invariance in the choice of values of this parameter to determine the general trend of the influence of geographical factors on commodity exchange in the subglobal region. It is determined that the use of an arithmetic mean physical distance is more acceptable for obtaining correct estimates of the influence of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of compliance with formal criteria for gravitational modeling. The negative impact of physical distance on trade in the Asia-Pacific region has decreased by almost 13% by 2021 compared to 1993, indicating a high intensity of commodity exchange in the subglobal region. The estimates obtained confirm the assumption that the land border has a positive impact on trade turnover in the Asia-Pacific region, which increased by 56% in 1993-2021. We find that the presence of a land border contributed to the expansion of trade between border economies in comparison with other countries of the Asia-Pacific region by 208.3% in 2021. The assessment shows the absence of a statistically significant impact of other factors - the colonial past and linguistic community - on trade in the Asia-Pacific region; this indicates the leveling of ties formed in the past due to the dominance of gravitational attraction between economies in terms of reducing barriers in interactions between them. It is shown that against the background of a decrease in comparative transport costs in the Asia-Pacific region, the current sanctions against Russia are able to limit the geographical distribution of Russian exports, reducing it to the neighborhood markets of the subglobal region, where the Russian economy will experience an increasing gravitational pull from China.
Бесплатно
The impact of institutional factors on economic dynamics in the regions
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of combining institutional and economic features in regional research and forecasting. We substantiate that the importance of institutional factors, including those in the regional context, manifests itself under significant differences in the institutional conditions for business that make it possible to receive stable institutional rent; this leads to the stratification of business by levels of alpha, beta and gamma business. The object of the study is top large business in the region. The distribution of major global and federal companies in the context of regions, as well as the presence of an established group of leaders in the regional economy, requires their separate monitoring and forecasting. We propose our own approach to determining the features of consolidation of large business. We show that the range of dispersion of their levels among regions and over time is significant and can be tens of percent and/or percentage points, which urges researchers to focus on these indicators. By comparing the features of consolidation of large business in the regions and using the constructed quantitative estimates, we substantiate the typology of methods (models) of economic growth in regions, depending on the presence or absence of major global, federal, and regional companies in them and their role in regional economy. Theoretical significance of this approach consists in combining the institutional analysis of the architecture of regional markets with the cost and physical aspects of the analysis; this will help improve the quality of diagnostics of regional and interregional problems and the validity of forecasts. Practical significance is determined by the possibilities of taking into account the architecture of regional markets in regional economic policy.
Бесплатно
The impact of precarization on the standard of living and employment situation of Russian youth
Статья научная
The study of precarization implications focuses on young people who are facing serious problems on the way to stable employment. The lack of clear competitive advantages in the labor market complicates employment in the formal sector of the economy, where workers have access to an extensive system of social guarantees. In this regard, young people often feel vulnerable and uncertain about their future. Despite the relevance of the problem and wide discussion, there are not many specific empirical studies in this area. The aim of the paper is to determine the impact of precarization on the standard of living and the employment situation of young people. The information base is represented by the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics for 2021 (30th round). Based on the original toolkit, the scale of precarious work was estimated depending on the concentration of precarization indicators and taking into account individual parameters of respondents. The indicators were calculated using the method of multivariate frequency distribution of attributes. According to the results obtained, the overwhelming majority (almost 80%) of young people are involved in precarious work. To a much lesser extent, this applies to the part of youth that has a high level of education, ICT skills and is engaged in skilled labor. The depth of precarization penetration is also closely linked to per capita income. As its size increases up to two subsistence minimums, the share of those involved in precarious work decreases significantly; and in this regard it does not matter what part of income is used for consumption. In conclusion, we substantiate proposals to counter the threats of precarization for young people. Prospects for further research are connected, first of all, with the identification of educational and professional trajectories that have a negative impact on employment stability.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The state has set a task to expand the production of high-tech civilian products for the enterprises of the military-industrial complex. Many defense enterprises are located in single-industry towns, which makes it relevant to analyze the mutual influence of the diversification of city-forming enterprises and cities' development. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the new model of diversification on the development of the territories of presence in the context of the nuclear industry. The research methodology is based on the principles of system analysis and institutional economic theory. The authors use the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and logical modeling. The basis is the theory of the social contract. The research proposes a three-level model of the social contract, detailing the interaction of an individual with three levels of public power - federal, regional, and local. The feature of the municipal part of the social contract for single-industry towns is highlighted: its third party is the cityforming enterprise that creates a number of basic benefits. In single-industry towns, where the nuclear industry enterprises are the main city-forming enterprises, the municipal part of the social contract changes: a state corporation becomes one of the contract parties instead of a city-forming enterprise. This is due to the introduction of a new model of diversification of the state corporation's activities. The authors prove that changing the social contract can give the cities of presence new qualified jobs, and state corporations can help to form a personnel reserve, fulfill the goals in the field of defense production diversification and the creation of new high-tech businesses. Testing the modified model of the social contract on the example of closed administrative-territorial entities of the nuclear industry revealed local governments' and the population's interest in it, the possibility of cities' long-term sustainable development, including improving the comfort of living. The results of the study can be used to develop strategic documents for spatial development, programs for single-industry towns' development, city-forming enterprises and holdings in various industries.
Бесплатно
The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve the quality of decision-making and be widely used in science and management. The aim of our study is to assess the change in the demographic situation in the Russian Arctic under the influence of the pandemic, with the use of new sources of population data that have emerged as a result of digitalization of the economy and public life. The article proposes an outline for the formation of a demographic knowledge base by combining traditional population statistics with data from digital platforms. We consider advantages and disadvantages of new data sources, features and examples of their application. We provide a detailed description of demographic processes in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 with the use of municipal statistics, data from Yandex online platforms and international pandemic databases. With the help of the proposed outline, we consider the dynamics of morbidity, mortality and vaccination against coronavirus infection. We study the reaction of the population of the Russian Arctic to the pandemic by analyzing the structure of search queries and the intensity of movement in city streets. We reveal the specifics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic and estimate the impact of the pandemic on the natural population change and human mobility in the Arctic Zone. We calculate excess mortality at the regional and municipal levels. Based on the vaccination rates, we draw conclusions about the prospects for further development of the pandemic. The results obtained can be used for development of socio-demographic policy measures and construction of demographic forecasts for the Northern and Arctic territories.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase on the economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includes protectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, and migration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on social and economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectives were achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodied population of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will halt the steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparison with the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situation in the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region, based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structure of the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not have a significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to a representative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s population were revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; there is a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the population of the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change of migration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from the perspectives of regional production) - people of young (18-29 years old) and middle (30-49 years old) ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave the Murmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positive effect - a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused by the retirement age increase - will be offset by a negative effect - the growth of the rate of migration losses in the region.
Бесплатно
The impact rating of academic journals in economics: ranking criteria and methodology
Статья научная
The rapid growth of the number of academic journals has brought to the fore the issue of choosing the leading ones among them. In this paper, we summarize current methodological approaches to the evaluation of scientific journals and substantiate the applicability of bibliometric indicators for assessing the impact of publications in the scientific community. The results of comparative assessment of economic journals affiliated with RAS institutions are presented in the form of impact rating based on the analysis of bibliometric data of the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI) and reflecting the level of impact of publications included in the RSCI. We substantiate the composition of indicators that enable us to make a comprehensive assessment of journals and that are available to be used to verify the results. We prove that the composition of the criteria and the method of their aggregation are suitable for ranking scientific journals; this is confirmed by the fact that the results correlate with the data of other ratings...
Бесплатно
Статья научная
Economic approaches to rational nature management and environmental protection are becoming increasingly important in environmental management. There are inevitable contradictions between economic activity and natural systems that reveal in varying degree and that have different ways of solution. The formation of an effective economic mechanism of nature management and environmental protection is a preferred direction in this case. The article investigates the payment for natural resources, fines for violations, as well as the cost of the natural environment restoration as the most significant factors in environmental protection.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The paper presents an analysis of disability indicators in European countries, where the increase in the number of persons with disabilities is largely determined by the high primary disability in the elderly. The goal of our research is to identify distinctive characteristics of disability in groups of European countries that have different levels of economic development and conduct different policies in the field of healthcare. To achieve this goal, we solve the following research tasks: we arrange European countries into groups; we make a comparative evaluation of disability rate in the population in selected groups; we analyze of the quality and accessibility of healthcare as a factor that influences disability indicators; we propose recommendations aimed to reduce the disability rate in Russia’s population. We group European countries into six clusters according to disability indicators, the proportion of elderly persons in the population and healthy life expectancy at age 60. The greatest similarity of these parameters is observed in the countries that have similarities in geographical position and historical experience of participation in political associations. The Russian situation is characterized by worse values of healthy life expectancy and a relatively low proportion of elderly population in comparison with the situation in most other European countries. The discussion part of our paper considers the quality and availability of healthcare. In Russia, a significant part of older citizens who have the greatest risk of developing disabling pathologies cannot afford to receive treatment in private medical organizations. The effectiveness of rehabilitation measures for people with disabilities remains low. In conclusion, we summarize the arguments in favor of the use of disability indicators in assessing the effectiveness of countries’ health policies. We propose directions of work to reduce disability in Russia. The results of the study can be useful for social management workers and for scientists whose research interests affect the problems associated with disability of the population.
Бесплатно
The inflation and unemployment processes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
Статья научная
The article considers the features of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in related developing economies during the economic crisis and after it. Latin American countries (2020- 2022) are the object of the study. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the presence and closeness ofsignificantrelationships betweenthe processesofinflationand unemployment, includingthe possibility of taking into account other macroeconomic variables affecting the processes of inflation and unemployment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The relevance of the study is determined by the possibility of monitoring the development of the economic crisis. The analysis of linear regressions on pseudo-panel data was carried out. The general model took into account the size and features of the economy, economic policy, as well as some social effects (the dynamics of unemployment and inflation, specific mortality due to coronavirus, the size of the labor resources for the economy). The models constructed help to study the general crisis dynamics and show the rate of recovery for the trends. The novelty of the results includes an assessment of the effectiveness of management tools in the context of strong external shocks. It is empirically confirmed that there was no direct relationship between the processes of inflation and unemployment in Latin American countries during the period under consideration. A detailed analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors and factors reflecting the behavior of state institutions may be useful for considering the risks of anti-crisis measures. Inflation is the most controllable process that can be influenced by tools. Unemployment, as a subject of regulation, is a more complex process involving various state institutions; at that, the success of decisions depends mainly on taking into account the country’s export specialization, the pace and severity of anti-crisis measures.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The instability of market economy development causes continuous changes in the activity of higher educational establishments. The article deals with the processes, taking place in the system of higher professional education in the Russian Federation in recent decades. On the basis of the analysis of statistical data and normative acts of the Government and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the key global and national trends in higher education are identified: increasing demand for higher education, resulted in its considerable offer (the growth of quantitative indicators is not always accompanied by improvement of higher education quality); reduction in the total number of students due to the demographic situation worsening; transition to a multi-level system of higher education under the Bologna process; change in specialties patterns and directions of training specialists with higher professional education due to the economy structural reforms and labor market needs; aggravation of competition. The tendencies lead to the emergence of demographic, political and economic risks. To reduce negative impact of the external risks to the universities' activity it is necessary to develop corresponding state educational policy in the sphere of higher education and risk management in universities.
Бесплатно
The influence of ferrous metallurgy corporations’ interests on the regional development
Статья научная
In the Russian scientific literature there are many papers published in which special attention is paid to the discrepancy between the economic interests of the metallurgical companies owners and enterprises controlled by them, and the tasks of national development and addressing the problems of social and economic growth in the regions and cities where the facilities of ferrous metallurgy industry operate. However, the global crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008 has brought the new plots in this respect. In this article, the crisis period is seen as the time of the most vivid manifestation of the business owners’ interests in the case of metallurgical holding “Severstal”. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these interests on the socio-economic development of the Vologda oblast - a region where the powers of the parent company of the holding OJSC “Cherepovets metallurgical plant” OJSC “Severstal”, one of the leaders of the domestic ferrous industry are located...
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article represents the new results of the ongoing researches “The influence of the metallurgical corporation owners’ interests over the national and regional development”, which are carried out in the ISEDT RAS under the direction of Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin. The first article, which dealt with that problem, represented the analysis of the financial and economical activity of the largest ferrous metallurgy corporations in Russia (OJSC “Severstal”, Novolipetsk Steel, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works) with all their segments on the basis of the reports prepared by the international standards. However, those reports didn’t contain sufficient information about the parent enterprises of the corporations. This article analyzes the financial and economic activity of OJSC “Cherepovets Iron and Steel Complex “Severstal”. The analysis is performed according to the annual account submitted in accordance with Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) and published on the official website of the company
Бесплатно
The infrastructure support for the development of the youth sector in the regional labor market
Статья научная
The youth is a necessary component in the labor market able not only to occupy one of its sectors, but also successfully adapt and further expand its share. The article presents the analysis of the youth segment of the labor market functioning and development in the regional breakdown (case study of the Tyumen Oblast), which has revealed its inherent trends: first, the demographic consequences of the decline in the number of young people; second, the asymmetry in the received information; third, institutional imbalances characterized by uneven supply and demand; and fourth, hidden unemployment. These problems are significant barriers limiting the development of the youth sector of the labor market. The hypothesis is the assumption that the development of the youth sector of the labor market and successful inclusion of the youth in the system of social and labor relations can be facilitated by the developed system of infrastructure support that can create favorable conditions for professional fulfilment of young people...
Бесплатно
Статья научная
Breaking out of a demographic trap is a priority of national policy in Russia. To achieve this goal, the national project “Demography” was adopted. The purpose of our study is to review current trends in European family policy in the case of Germany and to identify opportunities for applying foreign experience in improving the provision of institutional support to family policy in the Russian Federation. In our work, we use methods of institutional and statistical analysis. Unlike the studies of other authors, our own assessment of the effectiveness and sufficiency of expensive measures being developed in Russia is based on an institutional analysis that we conduct so as to reveal trends in European family policy on the example of Germany, which is characterized by an institutional logic of family policy similar to Russia. Family policy in Germany is based on increasing public spending on the creation of a developed system of social infrastructure. Both countries focus on increasing the birth rate and the development of social infrastructure that allows women not to abandon their career; but it is assumed that for Russia, the relevant implications will be more significant. As a result of accelerated construction of kindergartens in major agglomerations of Germany, an increase in the birth rate is demonstrated. However, this effect is mostly caused by the migration wave of 2015, while immigrants are insensitive to the measures being implemented. In addition, this leads to an outflow of population from other regions. The significance of the article lies in the fact that the consideration of the contradictions between various courses of family policy in Germany over the past 20 years has revealed the possibilities of using foreign experience in improving the institutional support of family policy in Russia. Based on the analysis we carried out, and taking into consideration the experience of Germany, we propose recommendations in the field of socioeconomic policy that can specify the parameters of the national project “Demography” in terms of taking into account regional demographic situation.
Бесплатно
The issues of asymmetry of corporate and public interests in the food market
Статья научная
The article analyzes the present-day condition of Russia’s food market from the viewpoint of coordination of interests of population and corporate interests of producers. The author points out that the provisions of the existing legal documents regulating the quality and safety of foodstuffs facilitate the growth of asymmetry in these interests. The article considers the manifestation of imbalance and the consequences of consumption of foodstuffs, produced with the use of new technology and receipts. It proposes the ways to smooth the asymmetry of interests by enhancing the role of experts in drafting the state decisions on the development the national food market from the standpoint of complying with the principles of food products safety.
Бесплатно
The issues of tax burden distribution in Russia's economy
Статья научная
Tax burden has a direct influence on socio-economic processes and is one of the main criteria for evaluating the current tax system. But there still exist certain simplified views on the level of tax burden, which is identified with the actual transfer of payments to the budget. The article highlights the results of a research into the tax burden of Russia’s economy. The main goal was to identify the trends in the distribution of tax burden and its actual level. The main conclusion of the study consists in the following: the ongoing tax reforms have not led to the establishment of an efficient fiscal mechanism, which will facilitate the implementation of taxation equality principle and take into consideration the opportunities of tax-payers to pay compulsory payments and develop the production. Meanwhile, there is the potential for tax maneuver with regard to a number of industries.
Бесплатно
