The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic

Автор: Smirnov Andrei V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social and economic development

Статья в выпуске: 6 т.14, 2021 года.

Бесплатный доступ

Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve the quality of decision-making and be widely used in science and management. The aim of our study is to assess the change in the demographic situation in the Russian Arctic under the influence of the pandemic, with the use of new sources of population data that have emerged as a result of digitalization of the economy and public life. The article proposes an outline for the formation of a demographic knowledge base by combining traditional population statistics with data from digital platforms. We consider advantages and disadvantages of new data sources, features and examples of their application. We provide a detailed description of demographic processes in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 with the use of municipal statistics, data from Yandex online platforms and international pandemic databases. With the help of the proposed outline, we consider the dynamics of morbidity, mortality and vaccination against coronavirus infection. We study the reaction of the population of the Russian Arctic to the pandemic by analyzing the structure of search queries and the intensity of movement in city streets. We reveal the specifics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic and estimate the impact of the pandemic on the natural population change and human mobility in the Arctic Zone. We calculate excess mortality at the regional and municipal levels. Based on the vaccination rates, we draw conclusions about the prospects for further development of the pandemic. The results obtained can be used for development of socio-demographic policy measures and construction of demographic forecasts for the Northern and Arctic territories.

Еще

Pandemic, digital footprint, vaccination, excess mortality, migration, data sources, russian arctic

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147236302

IDR: 147236302   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.6.78.15

Список литературы The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic

  • Torkunov A.V., Ryazantsev S.V., Levashov V.K. et al. Pandemiya COVID-19: Vyzovy, posledstviya, protivodeistvie [COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges, Consequences, Countermeasures]. Moscow: Aspekt Press, 2021. 248 p.
  • Spence J. et al. Covid-19 in the Arctic: Briefing document for senior Arctic officials. Senior Arctic Officials’ executive meeting, Iceland, 24–25 June 2020. Iceland: Arctic Council, 2020. 83 p.
  • Petrov A.N., Welford M., Golosov N. et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Arctic: Early data and emerging trends. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2020, vol. 79(1), pp. 1–9. DOI: 10.1080/22423982.2020.1835251
  • Petrov A.N., Welford M., Golosov N. et al. The “second wave” of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Arctic: Regional and temporal dynamics, International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2021, vol. 80(1), pp. 1–12. DOI: 10.1080/22423982.2021.1925446.
  • Katzenbach C., Bächle T.C. Defining concepts of the digital society. Internet Policy Review, 2019, vol. 8 (4), pp. 1–6 DOI: 10.14763/2019.4.1430
  • Smirnov A.V. Digital society: Theoretical model and Russian reality. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny=Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes, 2021, no. 1, pp. 129–153. DOI: 10.14515/monitoring.2021.1.1790 (in Russian).
  • Lundgren A., Randall L., Norlén G. et al. State of the Nordic Region 2020. Wellbeing, health and digitalisation edition. Copenhagen, Nordic Council of Ministers, 2020. 71 p. DOI: 10.6027/nord2020-052
  • Shabunova A.A., Gruzdeva M.A., Kalachikova O.N. Settlement aspect of digital inequality in modern Russia. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory’s Development, 2020, no. 4, pp. 7–19. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.4.108.1 (in Russian).
  • Golder S.A., Macy M.W. Digital footprints: Opportunities and challenges for online social research. Annual Review of Sociology, 2014, vol. 40 (1), pp. 129–152. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043145
  • Billari F., Zagheni E. Big data and population processes: A revolution? In: SIS 2017. Statistics and Data Science: New Challenges, New Generations. Florence: Firenze University Press, 2017, pp. 167–178. DOI: 10.36253/978-88-6453-521-0
  • Srnicek N. Kapitalizm platform [Platform Capitalism]. 2nd edition. Moscow: Izd. dom Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 2020. 128 p.
  • Kotyrlo E. Impact of modern information and communication tools on international migration. International Migration, 2019, article number 12677, pp. 1–19. DOI: 10.1111/imig.12677
  • Glushchenko G.I. Development of virtual migration in the context of the ongoing digitalization. DEMIS. Demograficheskie issledovaniya=DEMIS. Demographic Research, 2021, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 57–64. DOI: 10.19181/demis.2021.1.2.4 (in Russian).
  • Alburez-Gutierrez D., Aref S., Gil-Clavel S. et al. Demography in the Digital Era: New data sources for population research. In: SIS2019. Smart Statistics for Smart Applications. Milano: Pearson, 2019. Pp. 1–8. DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/24jp7.
  • Ruggles S. Big microdata for population research. Demography, 2014, vol. 51 (1), pp. 287–297. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0240-2
  • Bohon S.A. Demography in the big data revolution: Changing the culture to forge new frontiers. Population Research and Policy Review, 2018, vol. 37 (3), pp. 323–341. DOI: 10.1007/s11113-018-9464-6
  • Smirnov A.V. Human development and prospects for the knowledge economy formation. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika=Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2020, no. 2 (38), pp. 18–30. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2020-2-18-30 (in Russian).
  • Dmitrieva T.E., Buryi O.V. Arctic supporting zones: the Ranks and the Projects. EKO, 2019, no. 1, pp. 41–59. DOI: 10.30680/ЕСО0131-7652-2019-1-41-59 (in Russian).
  • Fauzer V.V., Smirnov A.V. Migration of the Russian arctic population: Models, routes, results. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika=Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2020, no. 4 (40), pp. 4–18. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2020-4-4-18 (in Russian).
  • Hughes C., Zagheni E., Abel G. et al. Inferring Migrations: Traditional Methods and New Approaches Based on Mobile Phone, Social Media, and Other Big Data. Brussels: European Commission, 2016. 41 p. DOI: 10.2767/61617
  • Bogdanov M.B., Smirnov I.B. Opportunities and limitations of digital traces and machine learning methods in sociology. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny=Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes, 2021, no. 1, pp. 304–328. DOI: 10.14515/monitoring.2021.1.1760 (in Russian).
  • Zamyatina N., Yashunsky A. Migration cycles, social capital and networks. A new way to look at Arctic mobility. In: New Mobilities and Social Changes in Russia’s Arctic Regions. London and New York: Routledge, 2017. Pp. 59–84. DOI: 10.4324/9781315640471
  • Smirnov A.V. The Arctic population: Dynamics and centers of the settlement system. Arktika i Sever=Arctic and North, 2020, no. 40, pp. 270–290. DOI: 10.37482/issn2221-2698.2020.40.270 (in Russia).
  • Skuf’ina T.P., Baranov S.V. Specific of population’s consumption: The trail of arctic residents in Sberbank big data. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory’s Development, 2020, no. 6(110), pp. 21–34. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2020.6.110.2 (in Russia).
  • Lazer D., Radford J. Data ex Machina: Introduction to big data. Annual Review of Sociology, 2017, vol. 43(1), pp. 19–39. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053457
  • Kitchin R. Big Data, new epistemologies and paradigm shifts. Big Data & Society, 2014, vol. 1(1), pp. 1–12. DOI: 10.1177/2053951714528481
  • Zamyatina N.Yu., Pilyasov A.N. Rossiiskaya Arktika: K novomu ponimaniyu protsessov osvoeniya [The Russian Arctic: Toward a New Understanding of Development Processes]. Moscow: LENAND, 2018. 400 p.
  • Leksin V.N. Systemic causes and consequences of spatially mediated depopulation. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya=Region: Economics and Sociology, 2021, no. 2(110), pp. 101–134. DOI: 10.15372/REG20210205 (in Russian).
  • Fauzer V.V., Lytkina T.S., Fauzer G.N. Features of population settlement in the arctic zone of Russia. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika=Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2016, no. 2 (22), pp. 40–50 (in Russian).
  • Stjernberg M., Penje O. Population Change Dynamics in Nordic Municipalities – Grid Data as a Tool for Studying Residential Change at Local Level. Stockholm: Nordregio, 2019. 44 p. DOI: 10.30689/R2019:1.1403-2503
  • Ahmad I., Flanagan R., Staller K. Increased internet search interest for GI symptoms may predict COVID-19 cases in US hotspots. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2020, vol. 18, issue 12, pp. 2833–2834. DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2020.06.058
  • Mathieu E., Ritchie H., Ortiz-Ospina E. et al. A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations. Nature Human Behaviour, 2021, vol. 5, pp. 947–953. DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01122-8
  • Vishnevskii A.G. Demograficheskaya istoriya i demograficheskaya teoriya [Demographic History and Demographic Theory]. Moscow: Izd. dom Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 2019. 368 p.
  • Jungsberg L., Turunen E., Heleniak T. et al. Atlas of Population, Society and Economy in the Arctic. Stockholm: Nordregio, 2019. 80 p. DOI: 10.30689/WP2019:3.1403-2511.
  • Zamyatina N.Yu., Pilyasov A.N. A new interdisciplinary area of study: Arctic regional science. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya=Region: Ekonomika i Sotsiologiya, 2017, no. 3(95), pp. 3–30. DOI: 10.15372/REG20170301 (in Russian).
  • Aburto J.M., Schöley J., Kashnitsky I. et al. Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: A population-level study of 29 countries. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2021, pp. 1–12. DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab207
  • Sleptsov A.N., Potravnaya E.V. Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the life of Arctic regions in population estimates. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya=Sociological Studies, 2020, no. 7, pp. 144–147. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250009621-6 (in Russian).
  • Danilova I.A. Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. The problem of data comparability. Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review, 2020, no. 7 (1), pp. 6–26. DOI: 10.17323/demreview.v7i1.10818 (in Russian).
  • Shabunova A.A., Natsun L.N. Children of the pandemic: Health of infants born in 2020. Sotsial’noe prostranstvo=Social Area, 2020, vol. 6, no. 5. DOI: 10.15838/sa.2020.5.27.1 (in Russian).
  • Fauzer V.V., Lytkina T.S. Migration processes in the Russian North. Sotsial’naya politika i sotsiologiya=Social Policy and Sociology, 2017, vol. 16, no. 1(120), pp. 141–149. DOI: 10.17922/2071-3665-2017-16-1-141-149 (in Russian).
  • Ryazantsev S. V., Molodikova I. N., Bragin A. D. The effect of Covid-19 on labour migration in the CIS. Baltiiskii region=Baltijskij Region, 2020, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 10–38. DOI: 10.5922/2079-8555-2020-3-2 (in Russian).
  • Logunov D. et al. Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: An interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia. The Lancet, 2021, vol. 397 (10275), pp. 671–681. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00234-8
  • Nogrady B. Mounting evidence suggests Sputnik COVID vaccine is safe and effective. Nature, 2021, vol. 595, pp. 339–340. DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-01813-2
  • Rybakovskii L.L., Savinkov V.I., Kozhevnikova N.I. Features of demographic development in Russia: Past, present, future. Sotsial’no-trudovye issledovaniya=Social and Labor Research, 2021, no. 43(2), pp. 132–143. DOI: 10.34022/2658-3712-2021-43-2-132-143
Еще
Статья научная