Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1553
The link between unemployment and industrial production: the Fourier approach with structural breaks
Статья научная
The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term relationship between unemployment and industrial production during structural breaks in the United States. We used monthly data from the Industrial Production Index and the unemployment rate between January 1948 and October 2018 to analyze this relationship. We found the stationarity of the time series used using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test, which enabled a stationarity analysis, including with the existence of structural breaks. As a result of the stationarity analysis, we did not find any stationarity in either series. We then used a Fourier Shin cointegration analysis to investigate the long-term relationship between the industrial production index and the unemployment rate. This test demonstrates its difference from other cointegration tests considering the time and shape of these breaks in the presence of structural breaks. According to the cointegration analysis results, we found a long-term relationship between the U.S. unemployment rate and the industrial production index variables. These results indicate that sudden structural changes in the industrial production index have an effect on the U.S. unemployment rate in the long term. We then used the Least Squares with Breaks Bai-Perron break type method to determine the structural break periods and the coefficients of these periods. We found the years 1958, 1974, 1990, and 2007 to be when the structural changes occurred.
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The logic of withstanding between civilizational poles
Статья научная
The article proposes a conceptual scheme of historical development as a sequence of breaking points that are associated with the change of sense, ideological structure and determine the dominant attitudes of the subjects of historical activity. The time intervals between successive breaking points are epochs of relative stability of the system of ideological attitudes. The modern epoch began with a historical breaking point that came at the end of the 19th - early 20th century, replacing the epoch of classical capitalism of the 15 th - 19th century. The dominant sense structure of the modern epoch is determined by the civilizational confrontation between Western countries and a group of leading non-Western countries. In the 20th century, the main ideological contradiction of this multidimensional confrontation was the struggle of socialism and capitalism. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the confrontation between Western and non-Western countries transformed into a struggle between supporters of a unipolar world and supporters of a multipolar world. From time to time, the civilizational confrontation experiences periods of extreme aggravation (for example, the First and Second world wars), which is then followed by “detente”. The most important factor in historical dynamics is the processes that occur in the Western power elite and that are associated with the need to maintain the dominant ideology of superiority in this part of the world. The article describes the features of economic and political processes that can lead to the emergence and acceleration of exacerbations in international relations. They include the tendency of the West losing its leadership and an uncompromising struggle with contenders for new leadership; large-scale and, in many ways, successful attempts to manipulate public consciousness through the media and the education system; emergence of powers behind the throne in Western countries; revival of neo-Nazi organizations.
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The methodical basis of estimation of flax cluster elements’ competitiveness
Статья научная
The article examines the problems of formation and development of flax cluster in Vologda region by inter-branch and inter-territorial cooperating. The effectiveness of this cluster is primarily determined by the level of competitiveness of its products, it depends on the rate of development of advanced technologies of agricultural production, industrial primary processing of raw flax and textile industry. Basing on the data available in the system of state statistics and manufacturing accounting, the author suggests the technique to reveal the competitiveness of major products made of flax and the competitiveness of flax cluster as a whole. The algorithm of this technique for vertically-oriented formations in regional flax complex has been worked out.
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The nature of large-scale financial and economic crises and latent world management
Статья научная
The material presents in abbreviated form the contents of the report, made on the basis of collective research at the Center for Problem Analysis and Public Management Projecting and submitted at the standing Research Seminar in the Center (head - Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, General Director of the Center S.S. Sulakshin)
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The need for workforce in constituent entities of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation
Статья научная
In the first quarter of the 21st century, the Arctic and everything connected with it remains a popular topic in the humanitarian, socio-economic and political spheres. It is especially relevant for Russia, which has the largest polar sector in the world. An integrated approach to the study and analysis of development prospects of the Arctic territories can create conditions for sustainable socio-economic development not only in the Arctic zone of Russia, but also in Russia as a whole. One of the elements of this approach is the need for skilled workforce at the enterprises of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation; this topic is considered in the paper. The relevance of the topic stems from the need to implement large-scale investment projects for development of mineral resources and transport infrastructure (megaprojects), the need to address long-term tasks of socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic and ensure national security in the region. All these points are contained in the strategy for development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation until 2020...
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The north and the arctic in the new paradigm of global development: current problems
Статья
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The north of Russia: distribution of productive forces and space development
Статья научная
Following the theoretical standpoints by the academician A.G. Granberg, the author considers the main problem of space development in association with the distribution of productive forces. Each of three positions of the North area (circumpolar, latitudinal and meridian) brings up to date some certain aspects of regional politics, notably its arctic vector, regulation of norms and standards of social and production activity, strengthening of integration in the line of “North - South” in order to form a full-blooded Russian market.
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Статья научная
According to some researchers, in recent years there has been an upward trend in predominant stagnating regions in Russia. The reasons for this include low innovation activity of the periphery, deindustrialization, predominant extractive industries, capital exports, growing social and property stratification and other equally important reasons. The current economic and political crisis in our country is both a threat, an opportunity and an impetus to restructuring the regional economy. In these conditions it becomes extremely necessary to search for new growth points in the regional economy, support for the most promising industries, and efficient resource allocation. Inter-regional cooperation is the most important area of the regional policy, ensuring progressive balanced socio-economic development of regions based on establishing long-term, equal and mutually beneficial relations between them. The importance of inter-regional cooperation for the development of modern Russia's constituent entities is determined by the fact that it strengthens economic ties between them, optimizes the location of infrastructure facilities based on cooperation of their activities, eliminates inefficient financial costs associated with the creation of duplicate economic structures in Russia's constituent entities and unjustified inter-regional competition, combines the regions' economic potential for implementing the most large-scale investment projects, spreads innovative experience in innovation development...
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The paradigm of transformative investment in the context of socially oriented theories
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the study of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. The growing inequality of the regions, the lack of equal opportunities in obtaining basic vital goods force society to look for new forms of overcoming social problems, which include transformative investments. The new investment paradigm, which provides for investing in solving social and environmental problems, has become widespread in many countries, the potential of this type of investment is growing every year, meeting the goals of sustainable development. Despite the fact that the investment directions of transformative investments involve investing in various spheres, this article considers only social aspects. In connection with the above, the purpose of the proposed work is to present a paradigmatic justification of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. It should be noted that the phenomenon of transformative investments can theoretically be explained in the context of different theories and concepts, depending on research tasks. In this paper, the theories of social justice and social policy, the theory of the welfare state are considered. To understand the essence of transformative investments, the paper considers their main characteristics, which allowed reflecting the specifics of these investments and the features of their evaluation. Transformative projects are aimed at solving a significant social problem, they must bring financial returns and ensure guaranteed profitability, which distinguishes them from projects provided by charity or state support. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that this group of theories (along with other theories) can serve as a theoretical platform for the study of transformative investments aimed at the development of the social sphere, complementing the works of Russian and foreign scientists. The results of theoretical studies conducted by the authors determine the choice of the main directions and forms of investments that allow optimizing the social policy of the state. The paper concludes that it is necessary to maintain a balance in the social and economic spheres, taking into account the already established institutions and preventing abrupt changes in the redistribution of income; providing the population with appropriate tools and its active participation in development processes.
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The phenomenon of social institution and its theoretical definition
Статья научная
Theoretical description of institutions as social phenomena requires that their adequate model be constructed. However, the concept of “social institution” has no universally accepted definition. The article discusses the phenomenon of social institution and analyzes its definitions. Researchers consider social institution from several points of view, but the existing definitions do not reflect all the features of social institutions. It has been recently acknowledged that institutions need to be developed slowly, and radical changes in social institutions often cause serious deterioration in their functioning. The theoretical model of social institution should explain the reasons for this stability. A good model should also explain other properties of social institutions, for example, their system and structural features. The paper proposes the model of institution as an open social system with blurred boundaries and an uncertain number of participants. At the macro level, institutions as social systems have a normative, ideal and organizational structure...
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Статья научная
In the article the growing role of tourism in a modern society is characterized, the huge importance of the development of tourism for economic, social and cultural rise of Russia and its regions is marked.
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Статья научная
The article studies the transformation and regulation of the phenomenon of unevenness of socio-economic space. We provide detailed comments on a fundamental nature of the unevenness of development of socio-economic space in any territorial entity (region, country, district, etc.) and point out the importance of research on the unevenness of development from the standpoint of science and management. We substantiate a priority approach to the study of unevenness; in the framework of this approach we move consistently from quantitative assessment of the phenomenon of unevenness of space through identification of specifics and patterns to forecasting and practical recommendations for management. All this is related to the prospects of further research. We present the importance and relevance of this study, which aims to identify specifics of the phenomenon of unevenness of socio-economic development of cities and districts of the Murmansk Oblast, and to forecast its dynamics and regulation in present-day crisis conditions...
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The post-crisis economic development and prospects of innovation activity in the Tomsk region
Статья научная
Completion of the critical phase of the global financial crisis is the need for economic analysis of its possible consequences. The article presents an analysis of key aspects of economic activities of Tomsk region as an example of assessment of the prospects for the region's innovative development. It contains the data on the dynamics of post-crisis economic development and the proposals for innovative orientation of the region.
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Статья научная
The eastern regions of Russia are the convenient zone in which Russia cooperates with the actively developing Asian region. The key states of North-East Asia such as China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are the largest participants in world trade at the present stage. The servicing of large-scale commodity flows with the European Union and the U.S. is provided by the market of transport services, by means of which the most effective schemes of delivery are built. Under these conditions, the transport system of the East of Russia has objective prerequisites for integration into the international transport system. The goal of our present study is to assess the potential of integration of the transport system of the Far East in the market of transport services in North-East Asia. At the same time, we assess integration opportunities with the help of dividing the territory of the East of Russia into districts based on the results of cluster analysis. Considering the achievement of the research goal, this approach is a new one. The need for division is due to the fact that the Far East is quite a large region, extremely heterogeneous in its internal composition, economic-geographical and socio-economic characteristics. Constituent entities of the Russian Federation as part of the Far Eastern Federal District have, among other things, different integration potential and level of development of the transport system. In the course of cluster analysis we use indicators of transport network development and the scale of foreign economic activity as the criteria for division. As a result of our calculations, we divide the Far East into five regions that differ in the potential of integration interaction of the transport system with the market of transport services in North-East Asia. The paper presents specific features of the selected areas, characteristics of transport systems and prospects for participation in the international transport market. In the future, it is possible to conduct a study taking into account the projects for development of the transport system of the Far East, which adjust the prospects for integration interactions.
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The potential of modern Russian generations
Статья научная
The paper considers the necessity of socio-demographic approach to assessing the potential of modern generations. The demographic potential of generations is determined by their number, their share in total population, and their life expectancy. Their economic potential is determined by the proportion of representatives of different generations in total employment. Their social potential is determined by the system of values of generations. The rapid growth of differences in these characteristics leads to the break up of intergenerational relations and is connected with the aggravation of social contradictions. The potential of modern generations can be considered in different aspects: number of generations, life expectancy at birth, the share of representatives of different generations that share or do not share the basic social values of the society, including values related to reproductive and other types of demographic behavior. In order to identify existing differences between generations in the framework of the socio-demographic approach, the paper analyzes the dynamics of the number of young people in 1926, 1936, 2014 in the Russian Federation; the authors also carry out a comparative analysis of the secondary and authors' sociological data of values-related and reproductive attitudes of conditionally parental and child generations...
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The potential of women in the labor market of the region
Статья научная
Participating in labor activity and the situation on the labor market are among the most important aspects of research into the empowerment of women; this research has a significant impact on the implementation of labor potential, and, consequently, on the overall economic development of the territory. However, as global and Russian practice shows, women in the labor market represent a more vulnerable category than men and often face discrimination in relation to wages, career position, employment, etc. Authors of scientific papers usually acknowledge that female population has higher levels of human capital, but they do not go deep into the analysis of its qualitative characteristics. In this context, we performed a study of the labor potential of women in the regional labor market (on the basis of the monitoring data on the quality status of the labor potential in the Vologda Oblast). Our analysis has shown that the values of the majority of basic components of labor potential quality in women are higher than those in men (with the exception of the health index)...
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Статья научная
The article deals with the practice of the financing of public education in the Vologda province in the second half of the XIX century - the beginning of the XX century. The article, basing on the historical-comparative approach compares the objects, forms, types and sources of the financing of primary education. The study of the problem is based on the analysis of the archival materials and published record management and statistical documents.
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The president called on the officials of all levels to “stop fooling around”
Статья научная
February 2023 marks one year since the beginning of the special military operation (February 24, 2022). February 21, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to the Federal Assembly. The head of state noted: “This is not only a time of challenges but also a time of opportunities… And our future depends on the way we realize these opportunities. We must put an end - and I want to emphasize this - to all interagency conflicts, red tape, grievances, doublespeak, or any other nonsense. Everything we do must contribute to achieving our goals and delivering results. This is what we must strive to achieve”… And here the President is certainly right, since the principle of “everything must contribute to achieving our goals and delivering results” is hindered by the activities and managerial decisions of individual representatives of bureaucracy who are unable or unwilling to comply with the new conditions in which the country found itself after the start of the special military operation. In the article, we carry on analyzing the situation in Russia, key steps taken by the President in the face of increasing threats to national security, trends in public opinion and individual facts of real life that contradict the dominant national-patriotic trend of social sentiment and the tasks set by the President after February 24, 2022. The information base for our research includes assessments by experts from various fields, results of monitoring sociological surveys, and public speeches of the head of state since 2000. One of our main conclusions is that the future of Russia, the real formation of a new Social Contract, which is possible only after Russia’s victory in the special military operation and which consists in building a sovereign social state based on traditional spiritual and moral values and the principle of social justice, should begin with the mobilization of elites, elimination of “contradictions, formalities and other nonsense”; and the head of state can and should be the initiator of this process.
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