Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1553
Ways to reduce social inequality
Рецензия
In the context of new geopolitical, financial, economic and epidemiological challenges, the issues of ensuring a decent standard of living and quality of life for the Russian population are still a priority in Russia’s domestic policy. The relevance of this problem arouses scientific interest, which is confirmed by the publication of more than fifteen monographic studies over the past five years. The article analyzes the findings of a study published in 2022 in the monograph Standard of Living and Quality of Life of the Russian Population: From Reality to Designing the Future, prepared by a team of authors and edited by V.N. Bobkov, N.V Loktyukhina, E.F. Shamaeva. The authors of the book - economists, sociologists, specialists in the field of medicine, environmental protection and labor law - presented the results of four years of studying the components, social standards and indicators of the standard of living and quality of life in modern Russia, their qualitative identification and quantitative assessment in the context of excessive socio-economic inequality. The main advantage of the monograph is an interdisciplinary approach to studying the quality of life, which allows for a comprehensive analysis of this indicator of the state of society from the standpoint of economic, social and legal relations. The article notes the structuring of the material, the sequence of its presentation - from theory to methodology and practical recommendations, brevity and accuracy of judgments about the categories under consideration, and a clear perspective of the authors. The novelty of the proposed publication is due to the fact that it investigates new tools of governmental and corporate policy to regulate the standard of living and quality of life, in particular, the presentation of the authors’ concept of a medium-term national program to reduce absolute monetary poverty. These tools are becoming an important step toward reducing social inequality. In practice, this is “designing the future”, as the authors put it, and this is what provides the monograph with both scientific and practical significance.
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Welfare of the population as an indicator of modernization potential of the territory
Статья научная
The article presents the results of a research into population's welfare as the basis of modernization processes. The authors carried out a comprehensive analysis of statistical and sociological data and highlighted the specifics of welfare in Russia and in the Vologda Oblast in terms of formation and use of money income; they also revealed the proportion of the population who are objectively ready to economic modernization. The authors revealed the emerging positive trends that show increasing involvement of the population in the savings-and-credit models. However, the scale of changes is not so great, and it covers only a small part of highly well-off population. In order to assess regional specifics, the authors grouped the RF subjects according to the level of income inequality of the population and other parameters of welfare that have an impact on the modernization potential of a territory. Judging by the indicators of the selected four groups of regions, the largest socio-economic potential of modernization is observed in the subjects with high income inequality...
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What capitalism does Russia need?: methodological guidelines of the “new industrialization”
Статья научная
Modernization of the Russian economy should be carried out taking into consideration global trends and contradictions of the country's socio-economic development. The first trend is predetermined by the transition to the sixth technological mode: the creation and development of bio-, genetic and nanotechnology, quantum computers and new composite materials. Countries that missed the stage of preparation for the beginning of a new Kondratieff wave (the growth potential is laid in the first 15-20 years of the beginning of the cycle), will at best enter the stage of catching-up development. The second trend is defined by global competition for human capital and consists in the outflow of talented Russian youth to the West. Russia should develop a concept for the preservation and enhancement of human capital, which will create natural barriers against the loss of intellectual capital. The undervalued “live labor” forms the basis of strategic contradictions of Russia's socio-economic development between the declared policy of innovative development of the economy and a weak demand for innovation on the part of private enterprises...
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What hinders the development of small businesses: the view of the Murmansk oblast entrepreneurs
Статья научная
In recent years there has been a slowdown in the growth rate of Russia's sector of small and medium entrepreneurship; this issue once again brings to the fore the search for new ways and mechanisms in the management of its subjects. A necessary condition for such a search consists in focusing on the problems that hinder the development of this sector and that can be revealed exclusively in the formation of valuable and accurate information - the collective views of its representatives. In this regard, the information base for the analysis was found in the results of several studies initiated by the all-Russian public organization “OPORA Rossii” (Moscow), its regional branch in Murmansk and the Northern Chamber of Commerce and Industry; the results were obtained in the course of the questionnaire survey, which was conducted among entrepreneurs with the purpose of revealing their assessment of the terms of doing business. The generalization of the research results and information obtained by the author in cooperation with representatives of small business and workers of the Prosecutor's Office has identified the main problems, their causes and consequences of their impact on the activity of the Murmansk Oblast business sector...
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Статья научная
In the article, we tried to express our opinion in the framework of aacontroversy that unfolded between the New Zealand researcher John Hattie and his opponents. The dispute concerns the validity of the arguments made by the scientist in his book Visible Learning (2009) on the size of external and internal effects that influence the performance of secondary schools. The subject of discussion in the article is not chosen randomly. Hattie's ideas are widely used in the educational policy of foreign countries (especially Australia), but will they be relevant in the Russian reality? A number of educational innovations borrowed from Western countries do not have unequivocal approval in Russian society (this applies to the final exam in the form of testing, the Bologna system of higher education etc.). In our study, we analyze Hattie's arguments and evaluate their scientific validity. For this purpose, we generalize arguments of the scientist and his opponents (for some reason the criticism by his opponents is not mentioned in the Russian-language literature). Hattie's book offers a scientific approach to the substantiation of indicators that affect school education performance to varying degrees. Among these parameters, a special role belongs to productive activities of teachers aimed at self-education and creating a positive climate in the classroom, whereas the contribution of the amount of professional competences of the teacher in lesson planning and content is clearly undervalued. Such thoughts, not fully accepted by the scientific community, became the basis for further controversy. Our article highlights methodological and cultural approaches to the criticism of “visible learning”. It is found that the arguments of Hattie's opponents relate to different aspects of his research, but are purely theoretical. We calculate the coefficients of variation and carry out a statistical analysis of the estimated model (which has not been done before). Having interpreted the data obtained, we find out the heterogeneity of the sizes of the effects in Hattie's model. On this basis, we make practical conclusions about the methodological and conceptual possibilities of using the New Zealand researcher's approach in the realities of Russian education. The article will be of interest to both educators and all those interested in social policy issues.
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What will Putin bequeath to his successor in 2024?
Статья научная
In accordance with the title of the journal Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, in the editorial article we analyze objective and real trends and facts in Russia’s domestic and foreign political and socio-economic life. Trying to distance ourselves from a subjective viewpoint, we rely in our analysis on the assessments given by experts from different fields of knowledge (economists, sociologists, public figures, etc.), as well as on a long-term database of sociological data, formed on the results of our own observations for the period since 1996 up to the present time. For more than 20 years now, every two months, we analyze the data of a sociological monitoring, which shows that there are significant and largely positive changes in the President’s foreign policy, but the dynamics of the domestic socio-economic situation in Russia are stagnant: during the period from 2000 to the present time, the key issues of concern to people have not changed, and the relevance of many of them has even increased...
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What will be the emerging new world order?
Статья научная
A new “world order”, a notion that originated with the idea of an institutionalization of international relations that developed at the beginning of the 17th century, is emerging. The old “world order”, inherited from the end of the Second World War and essentially centered on Western countries and the United States, had become dysfunctional since the beginning of the 1990s. It had gradually fragmented since the international financial crisis of 2008-2010. We can follow the trace of this fragmentation in the study of international trade, in the failures suffered by the United States in its multiple military interventions, but also in the emergence or re-emergence of new economic powers. The two major shocks constituted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the international crisis that has unfolded since the start of the conflict in Ukraine have put an end to it. This new world order will likely unfold based on the probable development of the BRICS. It could give rise to more balanced international relations. This could allow a new social contract to emerge in many countries.
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Where does the soullessness of the ruling elites lead?
Статья научная
On April 21, 2021, President V.V. Putin once again addressed the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and outlined the country's key upcoming development areas. Presidential Address was mostly social and aimed at solving domestic problems: comprehensive support for population and business in the “post-covid” period, restoration of the economy and social sphere's normal functioning, as well as the ability of the Government to maintain health of citizens and improve the demographic situation. The President touched upon many important issues that were demanded by a wide range of Russian society, gave instructions to the Government of the Russian Federation and regional authorities, and announced specific measures to support people in difficult life situations. Meanwhile, the issues of Russia's foreign policy and its positioning within the framework of international relations remained basically outside this Presidential Address. The President only hinted that “those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time”, “we ourselves will determine in each specific case where the red line will be drawn with regard to Russia”. However, as many experts note, after the victory of J. Biden in the US presidential election, there was the beginning of the culmination of the struggle between global forces for the return of dominant positions in the world that they have gradually lost over the past decades, for a unipolar or multipolar form of the future world order, prospects for the transition of world civilization from modernism to postmodernism. In these conditions, the issues related to Russia's civilizational self-determination and awareness of a kind of the state we are building, reasons that prevent us from effectively implementing the welfare state principles in the country, many of which were embodied in the amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in July 2020, become more relevant than ever.
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Who in Russia embodies the struggle for the preservation of mankind?
Статья научная
The paper provides an analysis of the main ideas of the article by S.Yu Glazyev “Russia is fighting for the preservation of mankind” (newspaper Zavtra, April 6, 2022), in which an important, actually central place is occupied by reflections on the role and significance of social consciousness and state ideology. However, the article pays little attention to the questions of WHO embodies the struggle, WHO the bearer of social consciousness is, and WHOSE INTERESTS should be expressed by the state ideology in modern Russia. In accordance with this goal, an analysis of the role of social consciousness in the historical destinies of peoples, the place and role of state ideology is carried out. The characteristics of the main classes and communities (strata) in modern Russian society and their worldview attitudes and orientations are given. Particular attention is paid to the precariat, which, in the author’s opinion, determines the face of modern Russian society. The conclusion is substantiated that worldview, ideological positions are not only a part of public life, but a certain penetrating component that concerns not only culture, but also all spheres of economic, social and political activity.
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Статья научная
The following article by the Academician of RAS Sergey Glazyev was published in the newspaper “Zavtra” (№ 9, 2012) a few days before the presidential elections in Russia. In the opinion of the Editorial Board, the main advantage of the article consists in the fact that it outlines the key conditions that make it possible to realize the priority development policy in Russia. The article is a reissue of a newspaper text; it has been reprinted with the consent of the author.
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Why is the self-sufficiency of urban districts budgets not growing
Статья научная
Urban districts occupy a special place in the system of municipalities due to their potential and role in the implementation of governmental economic policy. Possessing the most developed infrastructure, facilities and a good financial basis, large and medium-sized cities accumulate the major part of budget revenues. However, the predominant part of their revenues that amounts, according to various estimates, to 70-85% [1, 6, 15] goes to superior budgets. As a consequence of the reforms of intergovernmental fiscal relations and local government that were held in 2000-2009, cities were left without stable, legislated fiscal revenue sources that were sufficient to fulfill their obligations to the population. Currently, city government can fully dispose of single tax on imputed income, individual property tax and land tax. Significant imbalances in the distribution of budget revenues make cities dependent on the financial assistance of higher levels of public authority and lead to an accumulation of problems...
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Working Out Social Guidelines for the Industry Development of Metallurgy
Статья научная
At present, traditional methods used in forecasting the development of economic sectors no longer provide acceptable results; thus it becomes relevant to work out new methods and approaches to industry forecasting. The paper proposes an approach to forecasting the development of industries under the influence of processes taking place in the social sphere. We consider major contradictions caused by the influence of metallurgical production on the formation of socio-economic conditions in Russia. We show that social factors played a significant role in making decisions on the establishment of metallurgical enterprises and the management of the metal market. We highlight major social functions performed by metallurgy. The study of the commodity market of metal products is supplemented by an analysis of changes in the positions of metallurgical enterprises in the capital market and the labor market. We note that social expenditures help metallurgical companies to gain public recognition of their performance results and change the level of their capitalization. This made it possible to develop a methodological approach to assessing the prospects of industry development with the use of guidelines for Russia’s social development. We propose to use the following economic criterion: assessment of accumulation of funds invested in the development of production, preservation and growth of capital. We estimate social impact generated by development of metallurgical production under various scenarios of managing the decision-making system in Russia. We compare a business-oriented scenario, a scenario involving state paternalism, and a scenario of radical social transformations. We substantiate the conclusion about the advantages that the social variant of development of the state provides for creating a promising image of national metallurgy. This scenario will ensure high dynamics of metal production, growth of business capitalization and quality of life in Russia.
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Working conditions as a factor of increasing its productivity in Russia's regions
Статья научная
Labor productivity growth depends on various factors: labor potential quality and its use efficiency, improving management and working conditions at enterprises, updating material and technical base of enterprises and introduction of modern technologies in real economic sector, etc. In the study, we considered the impact on labor productivity of such factors as the loss of working time from industrial injuries. It is closely linked to the health-saving problem of working population, as in Russia, according to the statistics there is a super-mortality of working-age population, caused to a certain extent by unfavorable working conditions. The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of working conditions on its productivity and to assess the potential GRP losses from workers' disability injured at work. The research used economic and statistical methods, grouping methods, and comparison methods. The information base for the analysis was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and sociological monitoring on the assessment of population's qualitative characteristics carried out by the FSBIS VolRC RAS in the Vologda Oblast (no. = 1500). The article analyzes the dynamics of labor productivity in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District in 2005-2018, determines the share of the NWFD regions in the district's total labor productivity, evaluates health impact of employed population on labor productivity both on the basis of sociological data, and by grouping the regions by labor productivity and assessing the level of constant nervous tension, stress, the impact of production factors and other inconveniences of workplaces. The paper calculates the losses of gross regional product from disability time of injured at work. The authors prove that GRP loses from 17 to 26% in the presence of even a small number of disability days of injured at work. The practical significance of the research is to confirm the hypothesis about the influence of working conditions (the basic component of the integral indicator of the quality of working life) on its productivity which gives grounds for developing management decisions to pay special attention to the quality of workplaces.
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Working hours in Russia: employment models and choice factors
Статья научная
The paper classifies and investigates working hours in order to identify the structure of their distribution and factors determining their distribution in Russia. Assessment of the situation regarding working time is relevant in conditions of non-standard employment when it is necessary to search for ways to improve productivity. Our article adds to well-known publications that focus on the analysis of working hours and miss the important point that the same number of working hours can be implemented under different working time schemes, which entails, for example, different options for regulation and protection of employees’ rights. We design a conventional standard model of employment in Russia based on the frequency of occurrence of each of the three time parameters of employment (the number of working hours per week and per day, and the number of working days per week). We find out that this model represents a 40-hour work week with 5 working days and 8 working hours per day. According to the regression analysis of the microdata of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE), we identify factors that increase the probability of employment under this model, namely: availability of an employment contract, work in companies with state participation, employment in management bodies. While regional trends remain heterogeneous, the conventional standard model continues to spread, but it has not yet become the predominant model of working hours. We show that the growth of balance in the use of working hours is accompanied by processes that do not contribute to economic competitiveness, evenness of regional development and the quality of human potential in Russia. The results we obtain enrich the knowledge about the actual working time schemes used in Russia and can serve as a basis for making substantiated decisions to identify the reserves of working time and find ways to optimize it. Further research can analyze the quality of employment under different working hours.
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Working of the development strategies of municipalities on the basis of simulation modeling
Статья научная
The article deals with the urgent problems and approaches to modeling the development of territorial socio-economic systems. The authors suggest an approach to working out the integrated tools for modeling the development of territory and represent some results of its practical testing within the framework of development «Comprehensive Program of Socio-Economic Development of the city district of Ufa in 2011 - 2015».
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Статья научная
The article considers the issues concerning the inclusion of modern Russian youth in the processes of modernization; the study is based on the analysis of the results of a sociological research carried out using questionnaires. Modernization in the broadest theoretical terms is understood as a comprehensiveandmanageableprocessofrenewalofthesocialsystem, itsapproximationtoaqualitatively new state on the basis of deep civilizational changes with the aim of improving living conditions. In this case the specific and long-established features of the value system of specific regions are investigated as the most important resource of modernization projects. It is shown that there exists a system lag in the pace and quality of modernization processes in the regions of the Southern Federal District of Russia, as recorded in the statistics and responses of the representatives of the young generation of the macro region. The reason for this situation lies in the scale of alienation from the results of labor activity that are more clearly seen in the Southern Federal District than in Russia as a whole, and this is largely caused by the artificial (institutional) pumping of surplus value produced in its territory to other regions of the country...
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