Reassessment of the Todaro paradox: an extended panel data analysis on developing countries

This paper empirically analyzes the Todaro Paradox for eight developing countries for the period from 1992 to 2019. Having different data characteristics, we apply three different panel approaches (Fixed Effect, Random Effect, and Full Modified Ordinary Least Square) by using distinct models. Our findings from different models depict that the Todaro Paradox is valid for the sample economies. Specifically, we observe a negative relationship between the price level ratio of purchasing power parity conversion factor (GDP) to market exchange rate and urban population contrary to the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor (GDP) to the market exchange rate - rural population nexus. Thanks to obtaining these links, we apply the third empirical model to verify the Todaro Paradox. The analysis of the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor (GDP) to the market exchange rate and total unemployment in the urban population provides strong evidence for the validity of this paradox. Deviated from the previous literature, this paper applies the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor (GDP) to the market exchange rate since the higher the purchasing power parity of a country, the lower the rate of rural-urban migration is expected. By using one extra variable (unemployment), we test the Todaro Paradox. This combination of variables as well as different panel techniques (Fixed Effect, Random Effect, and Full Modified Ordinary Least Square) allow us to draw more robust conclusions. To address the challenges posed by rural-urban migration, policies should be designed to promote sustainable development in both urban and rural areas. This can include measures to create employment opportunities and improve the quality of life in both areas, as well as policies to regulate migration and manage the pressures caused by rapid urbanization.