Probabilistic modeling of controlled chaos

Chaos from the standpoint of complex systems theory and system analysis is considered as an object corresponding to the area of functioning of non-reflector complex system. The relevance of its study is explained by the entry into the triad «Managed Chaos - Hybrid War - Color Revolution». According to N.N. Moiseev, the sign of non-reflector complex system is the presence of a «human factor» in the form of decision-makers. Non-reflective complex systems are characterized by non-linear dynamics and unstable behavior, effects of self-organization in combination with chaotic phenomena and polyfurcations. Uncertainty in the knowledge of decision-makers about the properties of non-reflector complex system significantly complicates their management. For modeling chaotic processes in complex system, it is proposed to use the achievements of the probability theory: the objective probability theory of Laplace-Kolmogorov and the subjective probability theory of Bernoulli-Savage. Correspondence of the chaotic process to axioms of control is discussed.; the ontological model of the situation is presented, formed based on verified and axiological knowledge of the decisionmakers about the parameters and characteristics of complex system. The importance of structuring and formalizing the tasks associated with the study of chaotic processes in specific complex system is shown. The principles of modeling chaos with the use of analytical models of objective probability theory and heuristic models of subjective probability theory are described. The prospects of application of new information technologies for analysis and management of chaotic processes in non-reflector complex systems are noted.