Assessment of the region's foreign trade potential as a source of labor productivity growth based on structural dynamic analysis commodity flows

The strategic task of the Russian Federation is to increase labor productivity, which is indicated by the corresponding national project. One of the key areas of the national project "Labor productivity" is the development of Russian exports. The purpose of this study is to identify the goods-drivers of growth in labor productivity in the region based on the potential for the development of foreign economic activity in the context of macroeconomic instability. To achieve this goal, a methodology has been developed for assessing the potential of foreign trade as a source of growth in labor productivity, including: determining the degree of importance for the region of the foreign economic sector, assessing the region's involvement in international trade and the region's position in the all-Russian indicators of foreign trade; structural and dynamic analysis of commodity flows in the region based on the ABC-XYZ method; detailed analysis of product groups - potential sources of growth in the context of geographic structure, identifies trends in diversification and dynamics in relation to importing countries. The presented technique has been tested on the example of the Chelyabinsk region. For the analysis, the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Federal Customs Service for the period from 2006 to 2020 were used. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were developed for regional authorities in terms of intensifying the region's foreign economic activity. So, the results of the analysis showed that the Chelyabinsk region needs to pay attention to both promising commodity groups - 87 (AY), 68 (BX), 39 (BY), 90 (BY), 15 (BZ), 44 (BZ) TNVED EAEU, and to strengthen ties with the CIS countries, taking into account the interest in the region's products in non-CIS countries.