Forecasting models of gross added value in the manufacturing industry of Vitebsk region

The article is devoted to the forecasting models of gross added value in the manufacturing industry of Vitebsk region. The models with additive and multiplying components of GAV share in the volume of manufactured goods on the basis of linear and polynomial trends are developed. The approaches to the forecasting of GAV on the basis of given models and on the basis of quarterly indices of seasonality and annual estimation of GAV share in the volume of produced production are suggested. Using of year average estimates of GAV share on the example of GAV estimation received at the realizations expense in the mastering of innovations and substitutes of import products is suggested.