Methodological issues of using the randomized machine learning for forecasting the dynamics of thermokarst Arctic lakes

The analysis of the state of the problems of modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake fields under the conditions of modern climate changes is carried out. It is shown that the analytical methods used in studying the dynamics of thermokarst processes in individual lakes are not suitable for studying the spatiotemporal changes in the fields of thermokarst lakes. The geo-simulation modeling method proposed for studying the dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes does not provide sufficient forecasting accuracy. The problems of applying a new approach to the prediction of the spatio-temporal dynamics of fields under the conditions of modern climatic changes based on methods and algorithms of entropy-randomized machine learning are considered. The experimental results of remote studies of the dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes in the Arctic permafrost zone of Western Siberia were obtained using satellite images for the period of several decades starting in 1973. Climatic data for the same period were obtained by reanalysis based on the well-known ERA-40, ERA-Interim systems and APHRODITE JMA. An array of experimental data has been compiled on changes in lake areas, average annual temperature and annual precipitation in the permafrost zone of Western Siberia over the period of research. Regression analysis of geocryological and climatic data showed that the reduction in the area of lakes can be explained mainly by an increase in surface temperature and a change in precipitation. The structure of a randomized forecast model for the dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes is determined taking into account parameters reflecting changes in lake areas, average annual temperature and precipitation level. The features of using experimental data in the framework of an entropy-randomized approach to forecasting the spatio-temporal dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes under the conditions of modern climate changes are considered.