Methodological recommendations on risk estimation as applied to the situations after nuclear accidents testing or accidents

The methodological recommendations for risk analysis are applied to the assessment of the consequences of radiation exposure of the population as a result of nuclear accidents or tests and protective measures taken. They include the definition of risk indicators for different purposes at the cohort (individual) and population levels and the corresponding calculation formulas. Both radiation and non-radiation risks are considered. Radiation risk assessment is based on the general probability-theoretical methodology of risk analysis, primary models of radiation risk and background medical-demographic data. The latter serve as an internal base of the necessary source data. Absorbed or equivalent doses of population at the cohort level are necessary external source data. In preparing the recommendations, relevant materials from competent international and national organizations (ICRP, UNSCEAR, NCRH UK, BEIR USA, CEPN France, RNRC, etc.) were used. The recommendations provide for all possible `` scenarios '' of exposure: one-time, chronic with any possible temporal dependence, and mixed. Recommendations may find more general application: for assessing health status in risk indicators and the dependence of the latter’s values ​​on the considered risk factors, local conditions, etc. One of the main goals of this work is to prepare a methodological basis for the development of a computerized data bank on risk analysis.