Regional economy. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Статья научная
Banking capital plays a significant role in providing the financial foundations for the development of institutional sectors in regional systems, which include financial and non-financial corporations, households, public administration sector and foreign institutions. However, a study of the processes of banking capital flows between them shows that the banking sector currently does not perform its traditional functions of saving institutional sectors’ capital and providing them with loans, but carries out a speculative policy, contributing to a significant outflow of financial resources abroad and causing serious harm to the Russian economy. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to study the imbalances in the processes of banking capital flows between institutional sectors and to model the impact of bank investments attracted by institutional sectors on the socio-economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We have developed a methodological approach based on the methodology of forming balanced matrices of financial flows between institutional sectors using data from the primary accounting statements of loan institutions, the methodological principle of double entry bookkeeping of the System of National Accounts and methods of regression analysis using panel data. We built matrices of financial flows in the regions, characterizing the processes of bank capital flows between the sector of financial and non-financial corporations, public administration, households and foreign institutions, regression models characterizing the impact of bank investments attracted by each institutional sector on the indicators of socio-economic development of regional systems. The study has found that the capital raised by banks in the sector of non-financial corporations has a positive impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product of Russia’s constituent entities, leads to a decrease in unemployment in the regions, the number of people with incomes below the subsistence level, the degree of capital consumption, as well as an increase in the balanced financial performance of enterprises and the average monthly nominal wage.
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Modern development of small and medium-sized cities: trends and drivers
Статья научная
The processes of urbanization occurring in the world and in Russia, in addition to large cities and megacities, also affect small and medium-sized cities. However, while for the former there is a great deal of research on both the inner-city environment and socio-economic development in general, for the latter there is a lack of such studies. The main idea of the article is that an effective policy for the development of a city requires a comprehensive analysis of its place and role in the regional system and an understanding of the factors that ensure economic growth and create attractive conditions for the population. The purpose of the paper is to identify trends in and drivers of socio-economic development of small and medium-sized cities. The study identified problems and “bottlenecks” in the analysis of urban development. They include the weakness of methodological approaches to the assessment of current trends and factors in the development of small and medium-sized cities, taking into account their specifics, as well as the lack of necessary statistical information for a full-fledged analysis. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that we propose our own methodology for determining the trends and factors in development of small and medium-sized cities, which differs from traditional approaches by including the analysis of the distribution of cities in the regional system (according to Zipf’s law) in the dynamics and constructing a system of econometric models of the influence of factors on social and economic development. Testing the proposed approach in the Belgorod Oblast revealed a trend of divergence of small and medium-sized cities, increasing imbalances in population distribution, and the growth of small urban and rural settlements near Belgorod. The scientific hypothesis of the study is that the socio-economic situation in small and medium-sized cities is primarily positively influenced by investment in fixed capital and only then by such factors as an increase in housing stock, educational development, the work of sports and cultural institutions. The factors contributing to the social and economic development of cities are investments in fixed capital, the total number of residents, especially schoolchildren, the housing supply, and the development of sports and cultural institutions. The research findings are of practical value for the design and implementation of development policies for small and medium-sized cities in Russia.
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Modern development of the system of cities in Russia: static and dynamic approaches
Статья научная
The article raises the issues of urban transformation. The provisions of the new economic geography state that large cities get agglomeration effects from overcrowding, businesses and amenities. But practice shows that medium and small cities often have more prospects for development. Borrowed size (the location of a small or medium-sized city or settlement near a larger one) allows residents to use some of the services of neighboring cities without incurring the associated costs. The possibility of borrowing agglomeration advantages is forming a new system of cities. The distribution of population and economic activity does not always occur around administrative centers, there is a polycentricity of spatial development. To analyze the system of cities we proposed to use static and dynamic approaches that allow us to determine more fully the reasons for the attractiveness of cities and population growth. We constructed a system of econometric models of the influence of high order urban functions - factors of economy, education, culture and sports - on the number of residents of cities in the Central Federal District of Russia as a whole and by size categories. The analysis of polycentricity of cities revealed that a high level of the indicator is observed in the Moscow, Vladimir, Belgorod, Tula, Tver and Kaluga oblasts, and low polycentricity is in the Lipetsk, Ryazan, Voronezh and Orel oblasts. It was determined that the attractiveness of cities and the growth of their population are influenced by high-order urban functions (business, science, sports and culture), the ability to take advantage of “borrowed” size, the external effects of the urban network and the level of inter-city cooperation. The most significant factor in the growth of the city is the number of schools. The second factor is the possibility for children and adolescents to join sports clubs. Budget expenditures have a positive impact on the growth of large, big and small cities. Cultural and recreational activities are significant for the attractiveness of cities with a population of up to 10 thousand people and from 15 to 20 thousand people. It was revealed that more than a half of settlements in the Central Federal District are cities and urban-type settlements with population less than 10 thousand people. For this group, all the considered development factors are statistically significant and important. The results can be used to further develop the ideas of static and dynamic analysis to assess the reasons for the attractiveness of cities, substantiate the “borrowed size factor”, and determine general trends in the system of cities formation. The practical value of the work lies in a better understanding of the principles for creating an attractive city for residents at different stages and conditions of its development; it can be used in the development of appropriate socio-economic programs at the city and regional levels.
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Modernization of a region as a heterarchical system
Статья научная
Modern world is dynamic, variable and full of risks, which requires the development of flexible and dynamic mechanisms to modernize regional social systems. For modern Russian regions, different in pace of development and people's quality of life, it is important to develop such theoretical and methodological approaches to based to identify resources and problem areas of modernization. The research novelty lies in the analysis of modernization in a region using the theoretical and methodological capabilities of the system approach, the concepts of heterarchy and modernization. We emphasize the overlap of subject fields of terms “heterarchy”, “region”, and “modernization” in matters of principles (value basis) of modernization process management in the region using the heterarchy resources. Based on the results of the monitoring sociological study conducted during 2010-2016 in the Astrakhan Oblast sing the interview method at the place of residence according to the Standard Methodology of the all-Russian program “Socio-Cultural Evolution of Russia and its Regions”, we revealed the strengthening of the vertical of power, that is, hierarchical relations in the institutional and regulatory sphere...
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Modernization of the economy of Karelia
Статья научная
The article briefly outlines the main directions of the modernization policies directed on maintenance stable sustainable development of economy of the Republic of Karelia. Measures taken by the authorities and business structures to effectively manage the processes that contribute to the socio-economic development of the region are considered.
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Mortgage availability vs. availability of housing. We wanted the best, but it turned out...?
Статья научная
The Russian government's decision to lower mortgage rates in the spring of 2020 was announced as a measure to support the population during the spread of coronavirus infection. However, is this decision optimal and strategically correct in terms of improving the availability of housing for Russian citizens in the future? In the context of rising real estate prices, this issue in domestic economic research is insufficiently addressed. The relevance of the research is additionally conditioned by the evaluation necessity of the “bubble” formation probability on the primary housing market due to the “double boom”. In this paper, we present the study results of availability of housing dynamics for the period from 2000 to 2020. We identified the regions with the lowest and the highest availability of housing. We have studied the current state of the mortgage lending market in Russia and constructed a multiple regression factor model for residential real estate prices on the new housing market. The scientific novelty of the presented research consists in the determination of the reasons of the rash growth of real estate prices in the spring of 2020 on the Russian housing market and their forecast for the medium term period. It is recognized that in modern conditions the key factor contributing to the increase in primary housing prices is the reduction in mortgage interest rates on loans. The decision to sharply reduce the interest rate has caused an increased demand for housing and the subsequent excessive growth of prices, which ultimately did not contribute to the availability of housing. We substantiate the absence of a “bubble” and the reasons for lower prices on the Russian residential real estate market in the short term. We have implemented the forecasting of primary housing prices through a combination of traditional economic tools and neural networks. The persistence of significant price levels on the Russian market of new buildings in the medium term can be explained by the negative trends in the development of key influencing factors and other macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic development of the country. We have proposed managerial measures aimed at expanding the availability of housing for Russian citizens.
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On the methodology of checking integral estimates of socio-economic objects
Статья научная
A reliable and high-quality assessment of scientific, technological, and innovative development of territories helps to define socio-economic conditions and forecast economic growth dynamics of a given subject. The usage of integral indicators is among the most popular approaches toward assessing science, innovative activity, and other socio-economic objects. However, since a collective synthetic category is estimated, accuracy of this metric’s characterization of an intangible subject is uncertain. In this regard, issues related to the development of methodology for checking aforementioned provisions are relevant. The purpose of the study is to define the reliability of artificially derived integral complex estimates that in turn describe various socio-economic processes and phenomena. Scientific novelty of the research is to develop an approach to determining the reliability of integral metrics based on mathematical statistical tools. We attempted to determine the quality of artificially derived integrated estimates that, according to their creators, characterize various manifestations of science, innovation, and technology. We applied corresponding methods (variance, correlation, and regression analysis) using the Innovation Development Index of RF constituent entities and assessment of territories’ scientific and technological potential. The results obtained are of practical importance in relation to the evaluation practices of the scientific and innovative sphere carried out in the Russian economy. The theoretical significance of the study is characterized by the development of an approach that can be applied to other socio-economic objects. We conclude that integral assessments become an extremely subjective tool when applied to humanitarian areas. They can be used correctly if there is a confirmed connection with the indicators: integral assessments should influence them or have a strong response from them.
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Статья научная
Effective functioning of economy is possible only if all economic sectors function successfully. However, only the regions with a developed industrial complex can provide a decent quality of life and promote economic growth. At the same time, certain systemic problems have emerged in the industrial complex during the years of market reforms; these problems can be solved only with the help of profound and comprehensive transformations, such as an extensive use of advanced scientific and technological achievements and the formation of a fundamentally new approach to the development of the industrial complex. Under current economic conditions the functioning and development of the industrial complex depends to a great extent on the efficiency of their management mechanism. Therefore, it is expedient to begin modernization of the industrial complex and enhance its competitiveness with the changes in the existing management system. The paper outlines main problems in the development of the industrial complex, presents the typology of regions according to the level of development of the industrial complex...
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Статья научная
As the spatial structure of the economy is undergoing transformation, we observe the aggravation of a number of problems that hinder sustainable development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation; and a special place among them belongs to significant intraregional differences in socio-economic parameters. Overcoming spatial disparities should become an imperative for the development of the country and its regions in the long term. This confirms the need for further scientific understanding of the complex of issues related to the improvement of regulation of spatial development of regions; this determines the goal of our paper. In the course of the study conducted on the materials of the Vologda Oblast, we have found out that the majority of municipalities have an asymmetrical type of development with increasing differences between the areas of concentration of economic activity near major cities in the region and the rest of the territory; this indicates the process of compression of space. The paper proposes an approach to state regulation of spatial development of the region, based on its representation, on the one hand, as a complex system, and on the other hand, as a socio-economic area. Scientific novelty of the approach lies in the fact that it is based on principles and methods that help promote the development and self-development of municipalities, take into account their features and patterns of functioning, and orient municipalities toward solving strategic problems. The study is based on methods such as system analysis and system synthesis, generalization, comparison, and comparative analysis. The results of the study can be used in the activities of regional authorities and local government. Theoretical generalizations contained in the article can be used as materials for scientific discussion.
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Статья научная
The successful experience of France in implementing the concept of “growth poles” byF. Perroux led to the widespread usage of polarized development ideas in the elaboration of spatial strategies. The Russian Far East (FE) has accumulated considerable, and rather contradictory, experience of creating local growth points. The purpose of the study is to analyze the Far East’s experience of forming local zones with preferential economic regimes, to identify problems of its implementation, and to assess the impact of special local zones’ regimes on the economy of the macro-region. The analysis of the performance of local zones’ functioning was based on the assessment of the degree of achieving targets for creating local “growth points”. The assessment of the impact of local zones on the economy of FE was based on a comparative analysis of enterprises’ demographics, changes in the revenue structure of consolidated budgets of Far Eastern regions, and the quality of regional finances for 2013-2019. The implementation of these approaches showed that the business climate of Far Eastern local zones has a positive nature for its residents, but it has not yet been established; in the absence of a clear position of the state concerning the formation of propulsive industries in most local areas, anchor projects do not have a propulsive nature, and a significant number of small and medium enterprises is loosely connected with enterprises-leaders of zones. Orientation of specialization of Far Eastern local zones toward domestic demand and import substitution, which is objectively formed within the sanctions war, can slow down its export specialization; preferential climate of local zones has no obvious positive impact on the business climate of Far Eastern entities of the Federation, and the growing number of residents with preferential business conditions in local zones dissonant with demographics of FE enterprises. There is a deterioration of the quality of regional finances and the decrease of the taxable mass of profits. It implies the reduction of the number of profitable enterprises in FE as the result of the economic situation deterioration and the introduction of a preferential tax regime in region’s local areas.
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Статья научная
One of the priority areas in the development of municipal formations in the context of the new reform of local self-government in Russia is the transformation of the system of local self-government, including further consolidation of territorial systems at the municipal level. These issues are to a certain extent reflected in scientific studies and in the research on agglomeration processes as well. At the same time, in the methodological aspect, insufficient attention is paid to the transformation of municipal governance. We believe it is necessary to focus not only on general patterns, but also on the specifics of development of municipal formations located around a large city; these provisions have determined the relevance of the work. The purpose of our study is to develop a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. To this end, we use methods such as analysis and synthesis, structural, functional, monographic, statistical methods, review of municipal practices, etc. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. We show that transformation methods such as unification of rural settlements and transition to a single-level system of organization of local self-government, transfer of powers from the level of rural settlement to the level of municipal district, development of inter-municipal cooperation provide positive socio-economic effects for municipal formations. The findings of our work can be replicated and used in the practice of managing the development of municipal formations in Russia; they can also serve as a basis for further research on this topic concerning the improvement of the management system at the local level.
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Статья научная
The challenges that Russia has to face due to the unstable geopolitical situation in the world make it necessary to search for internal sources of development and enhance the efficiency of territorial management. Under the circumstances, in our opinion, the priority object of state policy should be the Northern and Arctic territories, which have a huge natural resource and economic and geopolitical potential. At the same time, their development in the post-Soviet period has accumulated a set of issues that require understanding and development of mechanisms to address them, which is the goal of the present paper. The analysis has shown that the market reforms of the 1990s carried out in the European North of Russia and in its Arctic zone led to increased depopulation, degradation and primitivization of industrial production, curtailment of agricultural production, decline in the quality of life, growth of concentration of economic and social activity in the “nodal” points and degradation of the potential of peripheral municipalities...
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Статья научная
The intensification of structural transformation of the economy in Russia and its regions in the context of geopolitical instability requires searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become drivers of development in the new economic conditions. This premise is especially relevant for the Northwest of Russia due to the fact that the economy in this macroregion has been subjected to the strongest negative impact of foreign trade restrictions. Thus, the aim of our study is to determine sectoral priorities of regional development in the form of promising economic specializations within a single macroregion. To achieve the goal, we address the following tasks: to develop a methodology for searching for promising economic specializations at the macroregional level; identify existing sectoral specializations in the Northwest of Russia; outline the profile of promising economic specializations in the Northwestern Federal District, taking into account possible interregional interactions. Based on our own methodological approach, which is the novelty of the study, we identify promising value chains in the timber industry, machine-building industries and the chemical industry. According to the results of the study, we compile profiles of promising economic specializations for regions in the Northwest of Russia; this is also an original scientific result. Based on the analysis of global economic development trends, we identify potential market niches for the industries under consideration. In addition, we propose measures to promote the development of promising economic specializations in the macroregion. The findings of the study can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of sectoral and regional economics, as well as federal and regional authorities in the development and adjustment of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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Статья научная
The development of tourism industry at the regional level is relevant for all the subjects of the Russian Federation. The issue is especially acute in those of them that do not have rich cultural-historical heritage and unique natural-climatic conditions. In particular, these areas include highly urbanized industrial regions of the country, which at present do not make an effective use of their potential for the development of domestic and inbound tourism. The subject of the research in this paper is tourist activity in federal districts of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the volume of tourist services in the Russian Federation and to substantiate the development of industrial tourism in the regions for the purpose of attracting additional tourist flows. The study uses the system approach, the basic scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, deduction and induction, and statistical analysis methods. One of the innovations in the tourism business of the Russian Federation could be the organization and conducting of excursions to the enterprises of the country not only for official delegations and business partners, but also for ordinary tourists...
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the issue of housing affordability on the Russian market. Based on official statistics, the authors reveal the main trends of the regional housing market development. The article reviews government priorities in the housing policy and presents calculations of the housing affordability index in the Vologda Oblast according to several scenarios. The authors present the results of the ISEDT RAS population survey conducted in the Vologda Oblast concerning the level of people's satisfaction with their housing conditions. The results indicate that only 37% of the population are satisfied with their housing, 13% - rated their living conditions as bad. The authors research best practices of a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to address the shortage, quality and affordability of housing. Numerous studies by Russian scientists indicate the necessity of forming and introducing new tools and mechanisms to improve housing affordability in the Russian practice...
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Regional specialization and agglomeration effects in the Russian economy
Статья научная
The main goal of economic science which is the search for ways to meet the existing needs by means of limited resources is of particular relevance today in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, the rapid recession of the world economy, reduced export volumes and energy prices decline. Agglomeration effects represent savings of the region’s assets from their more efficient distribution based on specialization. The purpose of the research is to develop theoretical and methodological aspects of specialization and agglomeration effects, which determined the need to solve the following tasks: (1) to provide an overview of approaches related to the study issues, (2) to assess the regional specialization of Russia and calculate agglomeration effects in agriculture, mining and processing sectors of industry, and the service sector, (3) to build a model of agglomeration effects impact on the regions’ economic development. The article presents the systematization of research on agglomeration processes through the allocation of groups of works that are based on the classification of Duranton and Puga, territorial and geographical approaches, the study of related diversity, the use of the cross-sectional analysis results, sorting processes, and agglomeration economy analysis. The economic point of evaluating a region’s specialization is to identify the industries in which it has competitive advantages in order to attract targeted resources. The assessment of agglomeration effects in Russia has shown that not all regions fully realize the advantages of specialization. The constructed models allowed to determine that (1) labor remains the key factor of development in agricultural and industrial regions; (2) roads are not a significant infrastructure indicator of development; (3) agglomeration effects in agriculture and services do not provide the desired result of the per capita GRP increment; (4) the manufacturing sector development is still an important condition. The article proposes a model allowing the assessment of the impact of agglomeration factors and regional specialization, the results of which can become an information basis for the development of regulatory actions in regional management. The research can be valuable for both the researchers and decision-makers in the field of spatial development.
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Resource security of healthcare in Russia: issues of territorial differentiation
Статья научная
Russia’s regions (federation subjects) vary greatly by level of socio-economic development; this fact leads to inequality in social infrastructure development as well. The same can be said about healthcare. There is a strong link between economic development in the regions and funding of medical care. It is necessary to point out that the actual level of morbidity and mortality is not reflected in the volumes of resource supply of the sector in terms of territories; consequently, the principles of social justice and social solidarity are violated. The article analyzes statistical data on the RF subjects and shows the extent of territorial disparities in the provision of population with the main healthcare resources: financial (the amount of per capita funding and the level of implementation of territorial programs of state guarantees), labor (provision of population with doctors and nursing staff), equipment (provision with hospital beds). The author points out the regions that show consistently low rates of resource security of healthcare...
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Статья научная
Financial capacities of the banking sector become an important strategic resource during the deficit of financial resources for the implementation of administrative multi-level spatial strategies and solution of important issues related to the territorial systems' socio-economic development. The purpose ofthestudyistojustifythekeyroleoftheeconomy'sbankingsectorinthesolutionoftheissueconcerningthe increase of the RF entities' fiscal capacity and to assess a volume of credit institutions' necessary financial resources. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were set: to study fiscal capacity and structure of the regional systems' government debt and the banking sector's contribution to its formation, to construct spatial regression models showing the dependence of the regions' socio-economic development level and their fiscal capacity on financial resources attracted by the banking sector, to define the volume of credit institutions' financial resources, attraction of which will solve the problem of the RF entities' budget deficit. We use the methods of statistical and regression analysis in this work. As a result, it was revealed that the banking sector's investments in government and municipal debt securities and lending of the RF entities contribute to the increase of fiscal capacity, form financial foundation for the implementation of socio-economic development strategies. Attraction of investments in enterprises' shares and securities, loans to financial and non-financial business and households lead to an increase of the territories' gross regional product. The results of this study may be useful for the government authorities of the RF entities while implementing the developed spatial socio-economic development strategies.
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Role of small business in providing employment in the Russian north
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the study of the level and dynamics of small business in the Russian North in current conditions on the basis of official statistics and the author's sociological survey. The reasons of the functioning and development of small business in market conditions are revealed. Regions of the Far North and territories equated to such are studied. The object of the research is small business in the northern Russian regions. The subject of the research is the study of the features of business development in the northern Russian regions. The purpose of this work is the study of processes taking place in the sphere of employment in the small business sector and its development in the northern regions of Russia. The information basis of this paper consists of domestic and foreign economists' works, materials of periodicals, and Internet resources on this topic. The results of the study show that employment in small businesses in the northern Russian regions, which are characterized by the dominance of extractive industries in the economy, does not have a strong impact on overall employment which is caused by this sector's current insufficient advancement. There is a narrowing of the small business sector on studied territories. With a case study of one northern region (the Komi Republic), we showed a contribution of small business into the provision of employment. The impact of small business on primary socio-economic indicators of the region is revealed. The assessment was conducted, and a low level of residents' business activity was noted: northerners do not seek to open a business due to a low level of expectations associated with the improvement of the economic situation and understanding of spatial development problems on the territory of residence. The main reasons of northerners' low business activity are the lack of entrepreneurial skills, the lack of start-up capital and difficulties with its attraction. The key directions of the increase of employment in the small business sphere of the northern regions are highlighted.
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Rural Development in the Context of Spatial Compression of a Northern Region
Статья научная
Ensuring balanced spatial development and reducing inter- and intra-regional imbalances are strategically important issues for Russia. However, finding a solution to these issues is complicated by the growing concentration of human, industrial, and scientific potential in large cities, major cities, and metropolises, depopulation and economic desertification of rural areas, that is, disintegration and compression of the country’s economic space. This is especially acute in the northern regions of Russia. The aim of the article is to study the problems and determine the prospects for development of rural areas of the northern region in the context of spatial compression on the example of the European North of Russia. We point out that the social, economic, and infrastructural issues observed in rural areas have remained unresolved since the 1990s. Rural population decline caused by the destruction of the socioeconomic potential of these territories is a key factor in the compression of the space of the northern region, degradation of the village and loss of its human capital. The reason lies not only in the shock transition to the market in the 1990s, but also in the ineffective state policy for rural development in the post-reform period, and in the absence of a strategic vision of the place of rural territories in the national space. Having analyzed the current state of the rural periphery and taking into account the need to shift to neo-endogenous rural development, we identify three priorities of state policy in the field of rural development in the North of Russia. They are as follows: development of the rural economy, modernization of rural infrastructure, and comprehensive development of human capital as the ultimate goal of all economic and social transformations. The findings of our work contribute to the formation of ideas about trends in spatial development of the northern regions of Russia and socio-economic issues of rural areas; they can be used by researchers in their studies on similar topics, and by public authorities when they need to work out strategic documents in the field of spatial development.
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