Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1553
Assessment of mutual influence of economic and ecological processes
Статья научная
The article considers two issues: the assessment of the influence of economic development on the environment and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of certain economic sectors. The authors used methods of statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling. The article reveals differences in the dynamics and defines the nature of the relationship between GRP per capita and emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere (including greenhouse gases) for Russia’s regions. It is shown that the dynamics in some regions in 2000-2011 corresponds to the environmental Kuznets curve. The factors that affect the reduction of anthropogenic impact were determined. Several models for estimating the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the productivity of various crops were designed and tested.
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Assessment of opportunities and factors promoting innovation development of the regional economy
Статья научная
The article dwells on the problems and directions of innovation policy at the federal and regional levels. It is based on the methods of system analysis and expert estimations. The authors prove that it is industrialization that will be the most important factor of scientific and technical progress in the coming years. The capabilities of innovation processes in the North and in the Russian Arctic are analyzed and presented on the basis of expert estimations and forecast trends, among other things.
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Статья научная
The article proposes a scientific and practical approach to solving the problem of optimizing the regional transport-logistics structure by creating a reference network of logistics facilities of different class and purpose on the basis of criterion assessment of logistics capacity of each district of the region. The methodologies used by most researchers help objectively assess the logistics potential of the region at the level of either macro-systems or micro-systems assessing logistics capacity at the level of transportation with a certain number of participants and stable freight turnover. The proposed method of multi-criteria optimization helps not only identify the opportunities of logistics resources of each administrative and territorial of the region, as well as promote its active integration as a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in domestic and international transportation corridors, creating new opportunities for the strategy of its economic development...
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Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment
Статья научная
The estimate of efficient corporate governance, as well as professional activity of the subject of this process - a Manager - is one of the most important tasks of modern management. Meanwhile, more often only the performance of an enterprise or its employees is evaluated. A number of methods are applied and optional technologies are developed. But at the same time the managers’ professional activity is still assessed insufficiently, the specific indicators of this procedure are not identified; as a rule, they do not reflect specific features of the sphere and the industry. The paper proposes indicators to evaluate efficiency of the heads of socially-oriented establishments (on the example of the health sector), describes levels of results achievement. The empirical approbation of the indicators was held during two researches conducted by the ISEDT RAS in 2013 on the basis of the elaborated methods “Analysis of conditions for the functioning and development of health care institutions in the context of the industry modernization” and “Assessment of the quality and accessibility of medical services”...
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Assessment of the economic efficiency of scientific-technical progress in dairy cattle breeding
Статья научная
The article evaluates the economic efficiency of scientific-technical progress (STP) in dairy cattle breeding. A set of indicators for estimating the economic efficiency of milk production is described. The system of network planning and management on the basis of network graphs is used for scientific substantiation of the efficient milk production model. In order to ensure the comparability of production system elements, it is proposed to use the unified energy indicators to determine the ratio of energy contained in the manufactured products to the amount of energy spent on their production. The article provides the algorithm and results of economic and energy analysis of cow housing types efficiency on the reconstructed dairy farms in the Vologda Oblast.
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Assessment of the effectiveness of population's labor behaviourat the macro-level
Статья научная
The article considers the main approaches to the research into the effectiveness of people’s labor behavior. Special attention is paid to the analysis of statistical, social and statistical-sociological methods. The article presents the author’s methodology for analyzing the effectiveness of labor behavior by the spheres of manifestation: in the labor market and in an organization. The research shows a high degree of differentiation by this indicator among the Russian territories. The indicator’s value was the highest in the Ural Federal District (0.588 points) and Central Federal District (0.422 points); it was the lowest in the Siberian (-0.139 points) and North Caucasian (-1.269 points) federal districts. The integrated assessment of the people’s labor behavior effectiveness was conducted, 5 groups of RF regions were allocated according to this criterion depending on the indicator’s value. The results of the analysis show that the territories with the high level of the indicator under consideration include such subjects of the Central Federal District as Moscow and the Moscow Oblast...
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Assessment of the effectiveness of public investment in the increase in life expectancy
Статья научная
The beginning of the 21st century was marked by the emergence of national projects in our country, which exactly correspond to the private integral indicators used by the UN in calculating the index of human capital development since 1996. The national project “Health care” is aimed at increasing life expectancy, “Education” - expanding the population's access to knowledge, “Doubling GDP” - raising people's income. Attaching equal importance to each indicator, the author of the article set a task to consider the economic efficiency of budgetary funds allocated to improve the nation's health. The author assumed a proportion as the main hypotheses about the nature of correlation between life expectancy (H) and expenditures on health care (G); the calculated coefficients of correlation (Pearson, r) of dependence H = f(G) for all RF subjects for 2003-2013 (0.49
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Статья научная
When a human person is perceived not only as a key factor in social development, but also as its objective, there appears the understanding that the qualitative shifts in the reproductive process, most valuable for the society, occur not in the material sphere, but in the sphere associated with the development of a person and satisfaction of his/her needs. This fundamental postulate helps to prioritize the goals of economic development. Economic growth without social reproduction defeats the purpose of economic development, as economic growth, which does not enhance the level and quality of life, contradicts its primary purpose. Financing of social reproduction of the population is not forced diversion of financial resources from the production process, but social investment that improves the quality of life and attracts skilled workforce to the region. The rise in salary of the economically active population has a positive effect on the formation of a profitable part of the budget, which is a prerequisite for its economic and social development on a more innovative base...
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Assessment of the level of socio-economic development in municipal formations of the Vologda oblast
Статья научная
Socio-economic development of regions depends to a great extent on the state of economy and social sphere in its constituent municipalities, because this level of government provides basic services to the population, and ensures comfortable living conditions, which determines the growth of the standard of living and quality of life. Under the conditions of the increase in the differentiation of socio-economic development of territories it becomes especially important to identify and study groups (types) of territories with similar development factors, conditions and parameters in order to implement specific measures of regional policy. The authors propose and test a methodology of comparative analysis, which used different techniques of standardization of indicators, which makes it possible to assess the level of socio-economic development of municipal and urban districts in the Vologda Oblast, and to distinguish 5 types of territories on the basis of calculation of the integral index that aggregates 18 initial statistical indicators. The article shows that the highest level of socio-economic development is characteristic of the cities of Vologda and Cherepovets and adjacent areas; the farther from the oblast center, the lower this level. The typological classification of the municipalities makes it possible to propose main directions and instruments of regional policy for territories with different levels of development.
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Assessment of the performance of the region's agriculture
Статья научная
The article presents the socio-economic characteristics of the activity of the region’s agricultural enterprises by the results of the questionnaire survey of enterprises’ managers conducted in 2013. The obtained information has been the basis for identifying problems in the functioning of the Vologda Oblast agriculture and proposes the ways to improve the current situation.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) of large corporations and studies its role in the life of local communities in Russia’s Arctic regions. The authors summarize some foreign and domestic theoretical studies and propose a classification of CSR forms and development stages. The obtained theoretical data serves as the basis for the analysis of CSR at the largest mining enterprises of the Murmansk Oblast, which is presented in the article.
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Статья научная
The purpose of the research is to conduct the econometric modeling of the interconnection between changes of the output and unemployment levels in Russia by disaggregating the periods of the decline and economic growth. Research methods are based on a modified Okun’s model which reflects the impact of changes in the output volumes on the dynamics of the unemployment level. The sample includes 79 Russian regions and uses annual (2000-2019) and quarterly (2010-2019) data. The results obtained showed that the Okun’s coefficient is negative in each studied specification, which corresponds to the theoretical content of the interaction between macro-economic parameters. Middle-term (2010- 2019) values of the Okun’s coefficient (-0.105) are acquired on the basis of the Generalized Linear Model assessments, which is free from perturbations associated with quarterly parameter fluctuations. The Okun’s coefficient value, calculated according to quarterly data, is around -0.05. We statistically analyzed the “asymmetry effects” on the labor market during the economic decline and recovery growth on the basis of annual data (2000-2019). Assessments of the econometric models showed that the Okun’s coefficient displays stronger reaction of the unemployment to the decline (-0.167) in comparison with the recovery growth (-0.090). The novelty of the research results is related to the construction of the econometric models reflecting the impact of changes in the output models on the dynamics of the unemployment level in Russia in 2000-2019 and disaggregated periods of the economic decline and recovery growth. The following development of this research will be related to the assessment of the impact of the economic recession on the unemployment level in Russian regions. The results may be used for conducting anti-crisis policy in the labor market during the economic recession.
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Assessment of the regional development strategy implementation
Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the formation of an effective mechanism to implement the strategies for socio-economic development in the region. The authors focus on the imperfection of the regional strategic planning system. This problem has become critical in the time of the global financial and economic crisis at the end of 2008. The article indicates the importance of monitoring as a tool to assess the implementation of the strategy on the basis of analyzed consequences of the global financial crisis for the regional economy. The authors present their own approach to estimating the strategy implementation according to the dynamic normal method. The method presupposes that it is possible to carry out the assessment on the basis of comparison of the achieved level with the reference model (matrix of domination) of the economic system functioning. Testing of the authors’ method has helped assess the implementation of the strategy for the Vologda Oblast development at the tactical and strategic level and identify the main problems of socio-economic development.
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Статья научная
The author made an attempt to enhance the reliability of indicators that reflect the regions' development levels and their analysis linkage with actual problems of socio-economic policy and spatial integration. In order to increase the objectivity of assessing the level of the regions' socio-economic development it is proposed to use indicator of value added per person employed taking into account the regional economy. The level of social development, according to the author, most aptly reflects the ratio of per capita income with the subsistence minimum. This, ultimately, will determine the vector of regional policy in the direction of social justice and sustainable development. The paper agreed the need for harmonization of the Russian Federation subjects and the formation of inter-regional programs of development of “transit” infrastructure “related” municipalities.
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Статья научная
Present-day ship repair production is characterized by various work patterns, dynamics, work specialization, complexity and diversity of tasks, faced by management staff. Taking these peculiarities into account, one should not only hire personnel, but also plan the production activity of workers, which is impossible without the use of modern economic and mathematical methods. In particular, the use of the laws of labour balance contributes to a more realistic, objective planning, foresight of the failures in the implementation of the plans and adequate response to emergencies.
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Статья научная
The author, using his own methodology, through the example of the Vologda Oblast, reveals the main parameters of gross turnover in the hunting sector with regard to hunting services; provides methodological tools for calculating gross turnover of tourist services in hunting, determines the degree of development and prospects of the tourism potential of the hunting sector, the role of hunting tourism in the region’s economic development.
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Asymmetry problems of structural shifts in regional economy
Статья научная
In the absence of a significant dynamics of economic growth rates in the Russian Federation and its regions and the exhaustion of the recovery increase potential, a negative impact of economic crises and existing export-raw production orientation manifest themselves especially clearly. As a result, a necessity to find new development drivers, which includes a great significance of the structural factor of the economic growth at the regional level in the context of achieving economic growth of the country, becomes relevant. In this regard, the purpose of the research is the analysis of structural shifts in regional economy at different phases of the economic dynamics. The novelty of the research is the definition of the contribution of structural shifts in the region's economic growth at different phases of the economic dynamics. The methodology is based on the calculation of structural shifts' indicators - magnitude, index, velocity, and power. We conducted the analysis of sectoral structural transformations of the regional economy on the basis of the Vologda Oblast's materials for 2005-2018. The research revealed a low diversification and efficiency of adding economy into global chains of value added. We calculated the impact of the structural factor on the growth of gross regional product depending on an increase or decline in the economy. The activation of the potential of agriculture, mechanical engineering, and electronic industry sectors is seen as very promising. We calculated the multipliers of the impact of the stimulation of the proposed sectors on the basis of the inter-sectoral balance model. We reviewed the structural-investment policy as an important instrument of changing national economic proportions. The idea of forming the benchmarking system, concerning the efficiency of conducted structural policy, was substantiated. A practical importance of the research is an opportunity to use its results by authorities for the formation of regional structural policy. We will continue the studies related to the determination of the dependence of regional economy's growth dynamics on structural dynamics in the investment process, organization of the factor analysis of the industry shifts and economic growth, and formation of the system of optimal indicators of the structural policy benchmarking.
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At an intermediate stage on the way toward cultural sovereignty
Статья научная
The past two months of socio-political life in Russia have been rich in important events: the World Russian People’s Council (November 27-28), the official approval on December 7 by the Federation Council of the date of the presidential election (March 17, 2024) and Vladimir Putin’s announcement of his decision to run for president (December 8), his communication with Russian citizens in the live broadcast format, combined with a press conference with journalists (December 14). All these events at the end of Vladimir Putin’s 4th presidential term sum up the events of the past six years and at the same time focus our attention on the tasks that society expects the head of state to address during his upcoming presidential term. The following issues are highlighted as being of increasing importance: achieving the goals of the special military operation, forming the national idea and ideology, nationalizing the elites, increasing the effectiveness of dynamic growth in the standard of living and quality of life; these events are analyzed in the paper. We consider in more detail the work of Vladimir Putin aimed at addressing the issue regarding the nationalization of elites throughout his presidential terms. Based on expert assessments, we analyze the factors that prevent the President from solving this problem promptly; most likely, the solution of the problem of nationalization of elites will be postponed for 2030-2036, that is, for the possible (according to the current Constitution of the Russian Federation) sixth presidential term of Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, according to many experts, without qualitative ideological changes within the elites (primarily in the system of public administration, culture, education), as well as without achieving the goals of the special military operation, it is impossible to make significant progress in shaping the image of the country’s future, achieving the consent of the majority of the population on the essence of a new Social Contract, which is based on the image of a just social state with equal opportunities for the main segments of the population on the territory of Russia. The article provides a comparative analysis of the most significant public statements that Vladimir Putin made throughout his presidential terms: his first program article “Russia at the turn of the Millennium” (1999), the RF President’s speech at the conference on international security policy (“Munich speech” on February 10, 2007), all the speeches of the head of state at the World Russian People’s Council (December 13, 2001, November 1, 2018 and November 28, 2023). The conclusion is made about Vladimir Putin’s key personal qualities (perseverance, strategic foresight, courage in setting ambitious goals, systems approach to their implementation) necessary for a national leader to continue the development of Russia along the path of strengthening cultural and, in general, national sovereignty.
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