Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1553
Agricultural modernization and sustainable development under resource and environmental constraints
Статья научная
The agricultural modernization of any country must be considered in the light of its national conditions, its population, resources and economic and social conditions. China’s government clearly expresses the desire to promote agricultural modernization at the same pace with the in-depth development of industrialization, information technology, and urbanization, which is a major task for the construction of a moderately prosperous society and for the achievement of modernization. Due to the growing resource and environmental constraints, promoting the agricultural modernization must take the way of achieving its sustainable development based on the status quo of the environment and basic national conditions.
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Agriculture of the Vologda oblast on the eve of Russia's accession to the world trade organization
Статья научная
This article presents the main problems of the Vologda Oblast agricultural development, the rapid solution of which becomes even more important in the conditions of joining WTO. The authors also consider the region’s opportunities of food security provision. In general, the problems raised in the article, highlight the main directions of the necessary activities of the regional authorities and handling the threats that may emerge in the agricultural sector of the Oblast economy.
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Agriculture on the European north: All-Russian agricultural census results
Статья научная
On the basis of All-Russian agricultural census results of 2006 the analysis of the objects, resource potential and agriculture pattern of the European North of Russia is given in the article. The census results allow us to draw up a number of concrete guidelines on the development of government's agricultural policy.
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Alleviation of pensioners’ poverty - a key task for the state and society in contemporary Russia
Статья научная
Russia is shifting to market economy under the lingering post-crisis stagnation, and the aggravation of economic stratification of its population creates additional risks to the pension system that is in a state of constant reforming. The relevance of the research is substantiated by the fact that in scientific terms the issue of poverty has been studied very poorly: there are no socially and economically reasonable criteria and indicators for assessing poverty and welfare in specific categories of the population; the factors influencing the formation of conditions for poverty have not been revealed; there are no tools of the long-term government policy to overcome poverty, etc.
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Статья научная
The aim of the work is to assess the activities of entrepreneurs in the regions of the Republic of Belarus affected by the Chernobyl disaster. We use statistical analysis and findings of sociological studies to assess entrepreneurial activity in the context of the following new challenges: the need to move to the sixth technological paradigm based on a highly competitive socio-economic system of a mixed type combining elements of state planning and market relations; preserving the social structure of the Belarusian society amid unprecedented wealth stratification in other countries; overcoming the consequences of man-made disasters. The empirical basis includes the data of sociological questionnaire surveys conducted in 2021 and 2022 by the Center for Social and Humanities Studies of the Belarus State Economic University in collaboration with the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, within the framework of the research project “To carry out a sociological assessment of the entrepreneurial potential of the territories affected by the Chernobyl accident”. The findings of the research show considerable unity of moral and value priorities of entrepreneurs and the population. This reveals the degree of adaptability of the country’s socio-economic system to the challenges associated with the formation of a mixed economic model, in which elements of market management are new to Belarusians. We prove that entrepreneurs can be the vanguard of a mixed economy as the most competitive type for Belarus to shift to a society of the sixth technological paradigm, since they have qualities adequate to modern challenges: self-reliance, relying on one’s own capabilities, competencies, what everyone can do personally, on their own. One of the main advantages of business activity in Belarus is the low degree of cronyism, which helps to avoid the challenges of oligarchic capitalism and related unprecedented social stratification on a material basis. It is shown that entrepreneurs adequately assess the conditions for a successful start in various business areas. To a greater extent, a request has been formed to launch a business in the service sector, followed by the areas of specialized services - legal, medical spheres, production of goods, processing of products.
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An open letter of academician Zh.I. Alferov to the president of the Russian Federationv.V. Putin
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Статья научная
The article considers the main trends in the diversification of the global food system. The author proves that at the present time the dynamic development and globalization in the modern world economy require diversification of Belarusian agro-food complex in order to achieve its independence from crises, reduce risks of the external environment uncertainty, unforeseen circumstances (export embargoes and restrictions) and changes in consumer preferences and, ultimately, boost competitiveness and strengthen economic immunity and stability. At the same time, the pressure of the abundant food supply in the world market segments, ensured by consumer demand, makes the manufacturers follow the principle “from fork to farm”. Thus, it is consumers’ preferences that are often drivers of contradictory and competing shifts in the transformation of food systems. The survey shows that two opposite driving forces - the consumers’ desire for ready-to-use food products with the deep level of processing and the growing elite interest in the natural healthy diet - determine the progressive development of productive forces in the agricultural complex in the direction of innovative search of diverse, adapted to consumer demand, high-tech schemes of production, processing and distribution of food...
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Analysis and forecast of competitiveness of Russian investment equipment in the foreign markets
Статья научная
The conducted research was aimed at developing and advancing methods of studying the impact of investments with a high share of costs of machines and equipment, scientific studies and developments for competitiveness dynamics of Russian investment equipment and construction of forecast options for its export. The studied groups of investment equipment were formed from high-tech, technically complex, and expensive types of products. The object of the study is the competitiveness of domestic investment equipment in the foreign markets. We considered the expansion of the export geography, which allowed exploring the competitiveness in the main (traditional) markets and in the growing (including new ones) markets of the far abroad countries. The authors have assessed the demand stability. The tasks, achieved in the reported study, are aimed at identifying the dependencies of quantitative assessments of competitiveness on quantitative assessments of investment factors, impact of which determines the pace and efficiency of the development of investment equipment production at Russian enterprises. The developed system of indicators allows obtaining quantitative, voluminous, and price estimates of investment equipment exports to the foreign countries and to assess and predict on its basis the pace of high-tech and technological development of this important branch of domestic engineering. The results of the study show a necessity to significantly increase spending on research and update of production equipment. The growth of knowledge-intensive investments will make it possible to expand the range of investment equipment with technological competitiveness on the global market. The conducted research has shown that the tools, existing and applied in the Russian Federation, allow us to ensure the constructive dynamics of factors affecting the competitiveness of mechanical engineering and its products. However, the resources that determine the impact of these tools are still insufficient.
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Analysis of deindustrialization trends in Turkiye from an international comparative perspective
Статья научная
In this study, deindustrialization was examined within the international political economy approach, and comparative analyzes were made to explain the deindustrialization trends in selected countries, especially in Turkiye. According to the results, deindustrialization, as a developed country phenomenon that started to decline at the peak of industrial productivity and caused an increase in the service sector, spread to developing countries mainly after the 1990s, with the global restructuring of labor through the neoliberalizm. It has created an effect of industrialization in some of the developing economies and deindustrialization in others. It can be argued that the global effects of deindustrialization in developing countries are closely related to the economic policies of the nations before they entered the deindustrialization process. For example, Turkiye’s main distinguishing aspect is the rapid transition from import substitution policies to a free market economy, while industrial development is still ongoing. As a result, it can be argued that Turkiye entered the process of premature deindustrialization in employment in terms of a direct transition from agriculture to the service sector and the inability of the service sector to absorb the labor force emerging from agriculture and industry, but this is a non-structural phase that can be overcome with alternative socioeconomic and spatial planning.
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Analysis of innovation potential of northern Russian regions
Статья научная
The purpose of the study is to improve theoretical and methodological techniques for assessing innovation potential and determine the main areas of scientific and technological development of Northern Russian regions. The theoretical part of the article reveals the essence of innovative potential and provides the author's classification of approaches to its measurement. It demonstrates that the majority of modern domestic and foreign studies are aimed at assessing the territory's innovative potential through the calculation of the integrated index; however, this leads to the merging of diverse characteristics into a unified scale. The paper describes the features and limitations of factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of the phenomenon under study, monitoring of specific profile and inward similarities of the analyzed objects. Factor analysis has revealed five most important characteristics which determine innovative development of Northern Russian regions: level of scientific development of the regions, level of inventive activity, human capacity, level of financing of innovation, ICT development...
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Analysis of migration flows of the population of the Vologda oblast districts
Статья научная
The article presents the research on the main directions and scale of migration in municipal districts of the Vologda Oblast and considers the main types of migration and the specifics of their statistical accounting. The data by Rosstat served as a basis upon which a general analysis of migration dynamics in the Vologda Oblast districts was carried out; and the article presents its periodization. Three main periods are defined: the “migration shock” of 1991-1999 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the migration stability of 2000-2008 and the post-crisis rural out-migration that began in 2009 and is increasing year by year. At the same time, gross migration indicators have shown high sensitivity to significant socio-economic change, in particular, to the economic crises of 1999 and 2008. The article describes the main age and gender characteristics of migrants, it has been determined that the most active migrants are girls aged 15-29, who move from rural to urban settlements...
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Analysis of tariff regulation in housing and utilities economy (in case of the city of Vologda)
Статья научная
The issues of tariff regulation in the housing and communal services in Vologda are considered in the article. On the basis of collected data about public payments for housing and communal services the growth of rates for these services has been identified. State authorities regulating tariffs and their competence are defined. A scheme of tariff, their characteristics and activities restraining growth of tariffs for public utilities are considered.
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Статья научная
Labor resource is the necessary productive factor in regional economic development, and one of important indexes to evaluate regional economic competitiveness. The great economic achievement brought by the 30-year reform and opening up of China is due to the fact that China brought the backward advantage of “demographic dividend” into play, promoted the fast development of industrialization and urbanization, and became the second largest economy in the world. The entity of “demographic dividend” is the non-agricultural migrant population, i.e., migrant workers. The transfer employment of migrant workers has typical regional liquidity, and the imbalance of regional economy causes the flow of many migrant workers. In order to achieve harmonious development and coordinated development, underdeveloped areas must understand the character and regulation, adopt positive industrial policy and supportive policy, guide the reasonable flow of migrant workers, and realize the transfer of local employment and citizenization of migrant workers, which can enhance regional economic competitiveness.
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Статья научная
Transaction costs emerge in different types of logistics activities and influence the material flow and the accompanying financial and information flows; due to this fact, the information support and assessment are important tasks for the enterprise. The paper analyzes transaction costs in logistics for automotive manufacturers; according to the analysis, the level of these costs in any functional area of “logistics supply” ranges from 1.5 to 20%. These are only the official figures of transaction costs of enterprises that do not take into consideration implicit costs. Despite the growing interest in transaction costs in logistics in the latest fifteen years, this topic is covered rather poorly in Russian literature; the definition of “transaction costs” is unclear, there is no technique of their information reflection and assessment. We have developed the methods for information reflection of transaction costs that can be used by automotive enterprises. Each enterprise will have an opportunity to choose the most suitable technique for information reflection of transaction costs or to compare the level of transaction costs when using different techniques...
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Analysis of trends and development forecast of small enterprises in Russia
Статья научная
This article describes the researching results of trends and development tendencies of small enterprises in Russia and its regions. It presents a number of developed economic and mathematical models that describe the structure and distribution of small-scale enterprises depending on the number of employees. Some indicators of small business according to the types of economic activity are presented here. The author considers the production functions reflecting the dependence of turnover on two factors and describes the forecast results of the main indicators of small business in 2030.
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Статья научная
Currently, the concept of employment precarization is one of the most discussed topics in the field of social and labor relations. It is due to the fact that this phenomenon affects more people than unemployment and poses a threat to the provision of decent working conditions in modern economic environment, when flexible forms of employment are coming to the fore. Their use, despite many positive aspects, often leads to the destabilization of labor relations, the effects of which go far beyond the specific workplace. In this regard, the goal of our article is to study and classify the implications of employment precarization at different levels of society organization. We use general scientific methods such as critical analysis, generalization, comparison, and classification, which serve as the basis for the analysis of domestic and foreign scientific literature on the subject. The findings of our study prove that the effects of employment precarization are indeed multifaceted. At the individual level, this is manifested in the deterioration of material well-being, social security and health, and also in the uncertainty of personal/family and professional prospects. There may be benefits in the framework of the organization, but the destabilization of labour relations poses far greater threats, such as reduced productivity, increased staff turnover, and increased costs associated with the health and safety of employees. All this can have a negative impact on the life of society as a whole, affecting the functioning of the labor market, the degree of social cohesion, the stability of the political situation, the scale of social inequality and social exclusion, and the pace of socio-economic development. The prospects for further research are to consider the implications of employment precarization, taking into account the specifics of the social and labor sphere in Russia.
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Analyzing distribution effects of the federal budget transfers for the Far East
Статья научная
The article analyzes the economic consequences of federal redistributive transfers for the regions of the Far East on the basis of two-regional computable general equilibrium model. The model is based on the assumption that regional government aims at maximizing their total spending which is limited by the size of the region’s tax base. Migration, trade and federal transfers are the main sources of regional interconnection in the national economy. The authors calibrated the linearized version of the model on data of nine regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. The regions have significant structural and macroeconomic differences not only in such aggregates as average per capita consumption and wages, but also in terms of average per capita income and budget expenditures. The researchers have found that federal transfers have a negligible effect on the welfare of the regional households. However, they affect other variables, such as consumption, employment, price level, wages, regional taxes and government spending. An initial increase in the welfare level causes an in-migration of labor resources, and a new equilibrium is established at a lower price level and per capita income in the recipient region. Moreover, a decrease in prices for local products is observed for the South Zone of the Far Eastern Federal District (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krais, the Amur Oblast), while for all other regions there is an opposite effect. The research has shown that the regions of the Far East are characterized by different reactions and may have opposite effects with respect to the state budgetary policy measures in relation to these regions.
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Статья научная
In the context of large-scale economic sanctions against Russia, it becomes an urgent task to design model complexes for assessing their impact on the economies of various countries. To this end, we use an agent-based approach and select China, the United States, the European Union, and the rest of the world as the main participants in trade relations with Russia. We design the trade wars model with the help of analyzing available data on the economies of the abovementioned countries and trade relations between them, and by assessing the imposed sanctions restrictions in quantitative and sectoral aspects. The information content of the developed model faced difficulties caused by the coordination of data on cross-industry supplies, imports and exports of goods in different countries. The article presents an algorithm that determines the sequence of processing the initial statistical data and bringing them to a unified form with detailed elaboration necessary for the model. The formation of arrays of initial data is carried out on the basis of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service, Eurostat, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China and the World Bank. To unify the information of these agencies, eleven enlarged industries are created in the model; each of the industries corresponds to one or more industries or commodity groups. The target result of applying the algorithm is construction of cross-country tables of industry supplies of intermediate and investment goods, containing data on trade in Russia, the USA, the EU, China and the rest of the world. In the course of data processing, we also analyzed the sectoral structure of international commodity exchange in 2021, which indicates a close relationship between the economies of the European Union and Russia before the introduction of large-scale sanctions, and relatively low indicators of commodity exchange between Russia and the United States. An analysis of the dynamics of trade exchange between Russia and the countries that imposed sanctions restrictions in 2022 showed that Russia's imports from the EU countries fell by 38%, and exports in value terms increased by 24%, which is primarily due to a sharp increase in energy prices. For the United States, the drop in exports and imports with Russia was 70% and 50%, respectively.
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