Regional reserves for raising life expectancy in the conditions of convergence of its level

Автор: Popova Larisa A., Zorina Elena N.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social development

Статья в выпуске: 6 (66) т.12, 2019 года.

Бесплатный доступ

The goal of the paper is to assess changes in the regional differentiation of life expectancy in Russia for 2003-2017, to consider the features of the level and growth rate of life expectancy, gender differences in the indicator, the difference between urban and rural areas, the structure of mortality due to death, the level of infant mortality in the regions of Russia; the paper also defines regional reserves for further increase in life expectancy. The relevance of the topic is due to significant regional differentiation, Russia’s significant lagging behind developed countries, and the goals associated with this field. We arrange Russian regions into nine groups with annual intervals of the indicator and evaluate the changes in the groups in 2003-2017. We find out that in the conditions of growing life expectancy there has been a marked convergence of regions; they approached the Russian average level according to this indicator. Regional convergence has occurred at the expense of the extreme groups in terms of the indicator, and primarily due to the lagging regions getting closer to the leaders; i.e. we observe the catch-up nature of convergence. This suggests that over the period of 2004-2017, the relatively easy-to-implement life expectancy growth reserves, which are typical for low-indicator regions, have been used quite well, while further growth in high-indicator regions is not an easy task, since the possibilities of first-order factors, such as gender differentiation, the difference between urban and rural indicators, the share of mortality from external causes, and infant mortality rate, have been largely implemented. Nevertheless, all nine groups of regions still have reserves to increase life expectancy, due to certain growth factors of the first order. The groups with the most unfavorable level of the indicator have the greatest reserves. However, factors such as the lag in the rural indicator and the value of infant mortality in the group with very high life expectancy provide opportunities for further increase due to growth factors of the first order.

Еще

Life expectancy, russian regions, regional convergence, grouping, first-order growth factors, gender differentiation, differences between urban and rural settlements, causes of death, infant mortality

Короткий адрес: https://readera.org/147224233

IDR: 147224233   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.6.66.13

Список литературы Regional reserves for raising life expectancy in the conditions of convergence of its level

  • Popova L.A. Life expectancy of Komi Republic population: reserves for positive trends renewal. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory's Development, 2019, no. 3 (101), pp. 62-75. (In Russian).
  • Kalabikhina I.E. On accounting for health and longevity in the concept of human development: the gender dimension. Upravlenie zdravookhraneniem= Healthcare Management, 2015, vol. 1, no. 43, pp. 50-65. (In Russian).
  • Denisenko M.B., Nikolaeva U.G. What happens to the rural population in the Near North of Russia? (case study of the Kostroma Oblast). Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya=Sociological Studies, 2015, no. 12, pp. 70-81. (In Russian).
  • Shubat O.M. Regional convergence of birth rate in Russia. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 2019, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 736-748. DOI: 10.17059/2019-3-9
  • Landry A. The demographic revolution. Demoskop Weekly=Demoscope Weekly, 2014, no. 611-612. Available at: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2014/0611/nauka02.php (accessed 12.08.2019). (In Russian).
  • Van de Kaa D.J. Europe's second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 1987, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 1-59.
  • Coleman D. Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: a third demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 2006, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 401-446.
  • Lesthaeghe R. The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation. Historical Social Research, 2011, no. 36, pp. 179-218.
  • DOI: 10.2307/41151280
  • Omran A.R. The epidemiologic transition: a theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 1971, no. 49 (4), pp. 509-538.
  • Kawachi I., Kennedy B.P. Socioeconomic determinants of health: health and social cohesion: why care about income inequality? British Medical Journal, 1997, no. 314, pp. 1037-1040.
  • Horiuchi S. Postmenopausal acceleration of age-related mortality increase. Journal of Gerontology: Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences, 1997, no. 52A(1), pp. 78-92.
  • Olshansky S.J., Ault A.B. The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: the age of delayed degenerative diseases. Milbank Quarterly, 1986, vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 355-391.
  • Terris M. The epidemiologic revolution. American Journal of Public Health, 1972, no. 11, pp. 1439-1441.
  • Semenova V.G. Obratnyi epidemiologicheskii perekhod v Rossii. M., 2005. 235 s.
  • Guo Y., Gasparrini A., Armstrong B., Li S., Tawatsupa B., Tobias A., Lavigne E., De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M., Leone M., Pan X., Tong S., Tian L., Kim H., Hashizume M., Honda Y., Guo Y.-L.L., Wu C.-F., Punnasiri K., Yi S.-M., Michelozzi P., Saldiva P.H.N., Williams G. Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation. Epidemiology, 2014, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 781-789.
  • Meslé F., Vallin J. Mortality in Europe: The divergence between East and West. Population, 2002, no. 57 (1), pp. 157-197.
  • Mackenbach J.P., Kulhánová I., Artnik B., Bopp M., Borrell C., Clemens T., Costa G., Dibben C., Kalediene R., Lundberg O., Martikainen P., Menvielle G., Östergrenb O., Prochorskas R., Rodríguez-Sanz M., Strand B., Looman C., Gelder R. Changes in mortality inequalities over two decades: register based study of European countries. British Medical Journal, 2016, no. 353.
  • DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i1732
  • Valkonen T., Brancker A., Reijo M. Mortality differentials between three populations-residents of Scandinavia, Scandinavian immigrants to Canada and Canadian-born residents of Canada, 1979-1985. Health Reports, 1992, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 137-159.
  • Shabunova A.A., Rybakova N.A., Chekmareva E.A., Morev M.V. Regional features of population mortality. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2008, no. 1, pp. 105-116. (In Russian).
  • Sukneva S.A. Influence of the main causes of mortality on the life expectancy of the population of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika=Regional Economy: Theory and Practice, 2010, no. 16 (151), pp. 148-153. (In Russian).
  • Grigor'ev Yu.A., Soboleva S.V. Exogenous and endogenous determination of mortality in the Siberian Federal District. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya=Region: Economics and Sociology, 2012, no. 2 (74), pp. 86-103. (In Russian).
  • Preminina Ya.K. Modern features of mortality in the European North of Russia. Vestnik Severnogo (Arkticheskogo) federal'nogo universiteta. Seriya: gumanitarnye i sotsial'nye nauki=Bulletin of the Northern (Arctic) Federal University. Series: Humanities and Social Sciences, 2012, no. 5, pp. 62-67. (In Russian).
  • Tel'nov V.I., Tikhonova M.A. Contribution of mortality and age of death to the dynamics of lost years of potential life in the population of the Ural Federal District and the Russian Federation. In: Instituty razvitiya demograficheskoi sistemy obshchestva: Sborn. mater. V Ural'skogo demogr. foruma s mezhdun. uchast [Institutes of development of the demographic system of society: proceedings of the 5th Ural international demographic forum]. Yekaterinburg, 2014. Pp. 161-166. (In Russian).
  • Popova L.A., Taranenko N.N. Northern regions of Russia: level and structure of population mortality. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya=Region: Economics and Sociology, 2017, no. 4 (96), pp. 77-100. (In Russian).
  • Denisenko M.B, Sidorenko V.N., Lifshits M.L. Regional differentiation of mortality and morbidity in Russia. Ekonomicheskie issledovaniya molodykh uchenykh. Al'manakh=Economic Research of Young Scientists: Almanac, 2005, no. 3, pp. 33-41. (In Russian).
  • Antonova O.I. Regional differentiation of mortality from external causes. Voprosy statistiki=Issues of Statistics, 2007, no. 10, pp. 17-21. (In Russian).
  • Ivanova T.A. Mortality of the population from the main causes: research on regions of the Russian Federation. Sistemnoe upravlenie=System Administration, 2016, no. 1 (30), pp. 16-28. (In Russian).
  • Skorik M.A. Regional differentiation by mortality rate taking into account the quality of life. In: Rossiya: tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya. Ezhegodnik [Russia: Trends and Prospects of Development: Yearbook]. Moscow, 2017. Issue 12. Part 2. Pp. 697-700. (In Russian).
  • Simagin Yu.A. Dynamics of mortality in Russian municipalities in recent years. In: Rossiya: tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya. Ezhegodnik [Russia: Trends and Prospects of Development: Yearbook]. Moscow, 2018. Issue 13. Part 1. Pp. 792-796. (In Russian).
  • Barro R., Sala-I-Martin X. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 1992, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 223-251.
  • DOI: 10.1086/261816
  • Kharchenko V.I., Akopyan A.S., Mikhailova R.Yu. i dr. mortality rate in Russia in comparison with developed countries. Problemy prognozirovaniya=Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2002, no. 1, pp. 78-92. (In Russian).
Еще
Статья научная