Forecasting the regional autoservices sphere development (on the material of the Republic of Bashkortostan)

The object of the authors' research is the regional autoservices market. The subject of the research is short-term forecasting of the main development indicators of the autoservices market in the Republic of Bashkortostan (RB). For forecasting, the authors use the basic adaptive Brown model with a modification of the coefficients of the model, taking into account the dynamics and trends of the main indicators. The main idea of the proposed modification of the adaptive forecasting model is to increase the informational content of the forecast by analyzing the dynamics of the coefficients of the model a0 (i) and a1(i), i = 1, ..., k. Essentially, the set of coefficients incorporates the influence of various factors that influence the process. In the forecast of the main development indicators of the autoservices market, gross indicators are used - total and average for many objects throughout the market with a periodicity of one year and for the short term, forecasting is carried out within the framework of the general class of linear extrapolations...