Modeling tourist flows at the regional and local levels. Experience of implementation in the Central ecological zone of the Baikal natural territory

The article presents the experience of accounting tourist flows including its territorial and typological structure at the regional level. Studies have been conducted in the Central ecological zone of the Baikal natural territory (includes the World Natural Heritage Site - Lake Baikal) in the context of the recreational impact on terrestrial ecosystems. For expert evaluation the authors use selective approach to the allocation of areas of intensive recreational development and aggregation of official statistics data, field observations data, technological characteristics of tourist sites, etc. Modeling tourist flows is performed considering their seasonal dynamics. At the same time, the total tourist flow is divided into the several categories: organized recreation in collective accommodation facilities, self-supported tent recreation, sports and active route tourism, ecotourism in specially protected natural areas, winter sports recreation in ski resorts, excursion tourism and recreation in a local population...