Mathematical methods of seismic risk assessment

Бесплатный доступ

The mathematical technology of evaluation of sites of probable occurrence of geodynamic disasters, specifically earthquakes, based on an analysis of geodynamic instability indirect indicators, namely, horizontal gradients of gravity anomalies in isostatic reduction is presented in this paper. A set of deterministic mathematical models which form the groundwork of the seismic risk assessment technology is outlined herein. Special attention is paid to the probability mathematical model of assessment of seismic risks, the core of which is the representation of probable geodynamic states of geologic environment as a simplest event flow, followed by the construction of the Kolmogorov differential equations system to estimate probabilities of finding the geologic environment in these states. The principal results of the practical application of the mathematical models developed by the authors to assess seismic risks exemplified by way of the examples of the Baikal region and the north-western territory in Turkey are given and considered herein.


Mathematical modeling, seismic risk, gravity anomalies, geodynamic hazards, stresses and displacements, geologic environment, earthquakes

Короткий адрес:

IDR: 148160131

Список литературы Mathematical methods of seismic risk assessment

  • Ananyin, I.V., Faddeev, A.O. Numerical Modeling of Strain State of Tectonic Disturbances of the Earth's Crust in Central Part of Eastern-European Platform (by example of the Moscow-Ryasan-Saratov avlacogen)//Internat. Math. Conf. “Geodynamics and Geo-Ecology”. -Arkhangelsk: Inst. for Environmental Problems of the North UrD RASc, 1999. -Pages 11-14.
  • Ananyin, I.V., Faddeev, A.O., Sim, L.A. Tectonic Stresses in the Earth's Crust in Central Part of Eastern-European Platform (upon results of mathematical modeling and structural & geomorphological data)//Issues of Seismicity of Eastern-European Platform: Coll. Of Sc. Works -M.: Department of Institute of Physics of the Earth at RASc., 2000. -Pages 3-18.
  • Maslov, I.A., Faddeev, A.O. Physical and Mathematical Modeling of Geodynamics Processes//Physics of Vibration. -2002. -Vol. 10. -No. 2. -Pages 100-115.
  • Maslov, I.A., Faddeev, A.O. Analysis of Electric Activity Sources in Earthquake Area//Physics of Wave Phenomena. -2003. -Vol. 11. -No. 3. -Pages 168-175.
  • Faddeev, A.O. Geo-Ecological Risk in Residential and Industrial Areas//Dual-Application Technologies. -2009. -No. 1. -Pages 22-30.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O. Modeling of Geo-Ecological Risks and Assessment of Geo-Ecological Safety in Recreational Areas//Problems of Risk Management in Technosphere. -No. 4. -Pages 55-62.
  • Faddeev, A.O. Model of Assessment of Regional Geo-Ecological Risk//Issues of Safety and Emergency Cases. -2009. -No. 1. -Pages 43-52.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O. Geo-Ecological Risk Modeling//Mag. “Special Technical Facilities & Communication”. -2009. -No. 2. -Pages 24-30.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O. Geo-Ecological Risk Assessment. Modeling of Safety of Tourist & Recreational Areas. -M.: Finance and Statistics, Publish. House INFRA-M, 2009. -370 pages.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O., Danilov, R.M. Mathematical Modeling of Risks of Geodynamic Origin//Mag. “Special Technical Facilities & Communication”. -2011. -No. 1. -Pages 48-52.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O. Probability Model for Seismic Risk Assessment//Bulletin of Russian new University/Management, Computer Science and Informatics: Collection of Scientific Works. -M.: Russian New University, 2009. -Publ. No. 2. -Pages 15-24.
  • Minaev, V.A., Faddeev, A.O. Geo-Ecological Risks in Recreational Zones in the Baikal Region//World & Safety. -2007. -No. 3. -Pages 35-42.
  • Catalog of Earthquakes in Turkey in the Period 1913-1970. Source: The World data Center for Solid-Earth Physics, Moscow. -URL:
  • Current Seismological catalog of the Geophysical Service at RASc, Obninsk. Source: The World Data Center for Solid-Earth Physics, Moscow. -URL:
  • Data from European-Mediterranean Seismological Center. Source: The World Data Center for Solid-Earth Physics, Moscow. -URL:
Статья научная