Qualitative methods of research in migration studies: the experience of the application of “scenario methodology” for the prognosis of migratory flows

The paper is aimed at the analysis of the probation experience of the application of “sce-nario” or “simulation” methodology for the prognosis of migratory flows from Ukraine. The re-search is drawing from the results of field research, which incorporated interviewing of experts and migrants themselves as well by participant and non-participant observation. Drawing for scenario methodology the author comes to the conclusion that the return migration of Ukrainian labour mi-grants back to Ukraine is highly unlikely at the moment even despite global financial downturn.