Impact of trade mega-formats in the APR on Russian export
Автор: Izotov Dmitrii A.
Статья в выпуске: 1 т.14, 2021 года.
He purpose of the research is a quantitative assessment of indirect effects from the Russian export because Russia does not participate in the APR mega-formats. We show that modern processes of trade and economic cooperation in the APR are manifested in the creation of trade mega-formats: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership were signed, and the expansion of the CPTPP for the USA, as well as the creation of a free trade zone within the APEC, was considered a promising area. The authors prove that the lack of motivation of the Russian side in joining the APR trade mega-formats is caused by a low level of tariffs on Russian commodities from the APR countries, and the risks of Russian goods replacement are not considered. After evaluating indirect effects, it was defined that there might be a slight negative impact on Russian export due to Russia not participating in the APR mega-formats. On the other hand, the competitiveness of Russian products on the market of the sub-global region may decrease in the following product groups: food products, goods of chemical industry, metallurgy, and mechanical engineering. The obtained estimates suggest that the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific Region will indirectly contribute to the weakening of the product diversification of Russian exports on the market of the sub-global region by shifting it toward a single-product raw material specialization. We show in this work that the formation of relationships of the APR mega-formats with third countries, depending on their closed or open configuration, will have a fundamental importance for Russia. The creation of closed trade blocks in the APR might mean an active substitution of Russian products and decline of the amounts of Russia’s exports on the APR market. However, if open trade blocks are created, then the discrimination toward Russian goods would not be that clear.
Export, import, product group, trade diversion effect, import duty, partial equilibrium model, trade mega-format, free trade area, apr, apec, rcep, cptpp, usa, Russia
Короткий адрес: https://readera.org/147225521
IDR: 147225521 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.1.73.4
Список литературы Impact of trade mega-formats in the APR on Russian export
- Baldwin R. A Domino Theory of Regionalism. NBER Working Paper 4465, September 1993. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4465.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Baldwin R. The world trade organization and the future of multilateralism. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2016, vol. 30, pp. 95–116. DOI: 10.1257/jep.30.1.95
- Rodrik D. What do trade agreements really do? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018, vol. 32, pp. 73–90. DOI: 10.1257/jep.32.2.73
- Fergusson I.F., McMinimy M.A., Williams B.R. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief. Congressional research service, 2016, February. Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44278.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Kuwayama M. TPP11 (CPTPP): Its Implications for Japan - Latin America Trade Relations in Times of Uncertainty. Research Institute for economics and business (RIEB) of Kobe University, DP2019-05, 2019, March 25. Available at: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2019-05.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Kadochnikov P., Knobel A., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. Openness of the Russian economy as a source of economic growth. Voprosy ekonomiki=Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2016, no. 12, pp. 26–42. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2016-12-26-42 (in Russian).
- Nilsson L. Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2018, vol. 3, pp. 156–186. DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030104AF
- Chemingui M., Surry Y., Thabet C. Tools for Ex Ante Trade Impact Analysis. Economic and social commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), United Nations, Beirut, 2018. Available at: https://www.unescwa.org/file/85059/download?token=QDIA4INk (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Cheong D. Methods for Ex Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements. Asian development bank. Working Paper, 2010, no. 52, June. Available at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28526/wp52-ex-ante-economic-evaluation.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Knobel A., Sedalishchev V. Risks and benefits for EAEU from various integration scenarios in Asia-Pacific region. Ekonomicheskaya politika=Economic Policy, 2017, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 72–85. DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2017-2-03 (in Russian).
- Knobel A.Yu. Eurasian Economic union: Prospects and challenges for development. Voprosy ekonomiki=Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 3, pp. 87–108. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2015-3-87-108 (in Russian).
- Petri P.A., Plummer M.G. The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates. Peterson institute for international economics working paper, no. 16-2, East-West Center Workshop on Mega-Regionalism – New Challenges for Trade and Innovation, 2016. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2723413
- Kawasaki K. The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific. Journal of Asian Economics, 2015, vol. 39, pp. 19–30. DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2015.05.001.
- Malokostov A., Turdyeva N. Impacts of Trade ‘Meta-Agreements’ on Russia. The Impact of Mega-Agreements on BRICS. 5th BRICS Trade and economic research network (TERN) Meeting, 2014. pp. 50–62. Available at: https://ccgi.fgv.br/sites/ccgi.fgv.br/files/file/Publicacoes/5th%20BRICS-TERN%20ebook.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Izotov D. Russia and the Pacific Rim: Prospects for trade liberalization. Russian Politics and Law, 2017, vol. 55, pp. 457–479. DOI: 10.1080/10611940.2017.1574502
- Izotov D.A. Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union, BRICS, and Trans-Pacific partnership countries. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2017, vol. 28, pp. 338–345. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700717030078
- Li Ch., Lin X., Whalley J. Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP. NBER Working Paper 26877. 2020, March. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26877 (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Petri P.A., Plummer M.G., Zhai F. The TPP, China and the FTAAP: The Case for Convergence. New Directions in Asia-Pacific Economic Integration. Ed. by G. Tang, P.A. Petri. Honolulu: East-West Center, 2014, pp. 78–89. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2438725
- Ferrantino M.J., Maliszewska M., Taran S. Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific: Estimated Effects. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/33549 (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Laird S., Yeats A. The UNCTAD Trade Policy Simulation Model. A Note on the Methodology, Data and Uses. United Nations conference on trade and development, Geneva, 1986, October. Available at: https://wits.worldbank. org/data/public/SMARTMethodology.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Francois J., Hall K.H. Partial Equilibrium Modeling. Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis: A Handbook. Ed. by J.F. Francois, K.A. Reinert. Cambridge University Press, 1997, pp. 122–155. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781139174824.007
- Armington P. A Theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. Internationally Monetary Fund Staff Paper, 1969, vol. 16, pp. 159–176. DOI: 10.2307/3866403
- Viner J. The Customs Union Issue. Oxford University Press, 2014. 256 p.
- Izotov D.A. Ekonomicheskaya integratsiya Rossii so stranami ATR: problemy i perspektivy [Economic Integration of Russia with the APR Countries: Problems and Prospects]. Ed. by P.A. Minakir. Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Khabarovsk: IFES RAS, 2020. 368 p.
- Francois J., Hall K.H. Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy: the GSIM model. IIDE Discussion Papers 20090803, institute for international and development economics, 2009. Available at: http://www.i4ide.org/content/wpaper/dp20090803.zip (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Feenstra R.C., Luck P.A., Obstfeld M., Russ K.N. In Search of the Armington Elasticity. National bureau of economic research, working paper series 20063. April 2014. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20063 (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Stawowy W. Calculation of Ad Valorem Equivalents of Non-Ad Valorem Tariffs. Methodology Notes. UNCTAD, 2001, October. Available at: http://wits.worldbank.org/witsweb/download/docs/AVEmeth.doc. (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Incidence of Non-Ad Valorem Tariffs in Members’ Tariff Schedules and Possible Approaches to the Estimation of Ad Valorem Equivalents. World Trade Organization, negotiating group on market access, 2003, May. Available at: http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/docs/wto_s10.doc. (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Jammes O., Olarrega M. Explaining SMART and GSIM. The World Bank, 2005, April. Available at: http://wits. worldbank.org/witsweb/download/ docs/explaining_smart_and_gsim.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Wei S., Frankel J.A. Open versus closed trade blocs. In: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, 1997. Рp. 119–140. Available at: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c859 (accessed: 20.12.2020).
- Bagwell K., Staiger R.W. The Design of Trade Agreements. National bureau of economic research working paper 22087, 2016, March. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22087 (accessed: 20.12.2020).