Development of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of import substitution in Russia

Автор: Litvinova Alla V., Talalaeva Natalya S., Parfenova Mariya V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes

Статья в выпуске: 4 (64) т.12, 2019 года.

Бесплатный доступ

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the process of import substitution, which is on the rise in the country, requires a reliable and accurate quantitative assessment of its effectiveness. The main idea of the study is to assess the effectiveness of import substitution as a complex multidimensional phenomenon characterized by multidirectional and contradictory dynamics of its processes in their unity, relationship and mutual influence. The goal of the study is to develop a method for integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness on the basis of theoretical substantiation of its principles and provisions. To achieve the goal we use such methods as analysis and generalization of existing methodological approaches to its assessment. The hypothesis of the study is based on the fact that the method we have developed allows us not only to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution, but also to predict the directions of its increase. Our research develops the works of other authors in the field of integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness: we elaborate a comprehensive system of target performance indicators (the system has not been used before) and assess the trends in the development of import substitution processes structured in the context of domestic production, export and import of goods subject to import substitution, according to the degree of achievement of these indicators. The study was carried out with the use of methods such as factor determinant and structural-dynamic analysis, and multi-criteria optimization method. The technique was tested on the example of food products - the flagship of domestic import substitution. We reveal the processes that hinder import substitution in the food industry and some positive trends in import substitution that confirm its effectiveness. We calculate an optimal structure of commodity resources, which ensures the achievement of import substitution effectiveness in the food industry to the fullest extent. It is advisable to apply our technique in the field of import substitution in individual commodity groups, each of which has its own features in the formation of imports, exports, domestic production and their specifics in the context of research tasks. We plan to continue our research in the development of methods for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of import substitution on economic growth in the country.

Еще

Import substitution, efficiency, import substitution effectiveness, assessing import substitution effectiveness, sanctions, food products

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147224205

IDR: 147224205   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.5

Список литературы Development of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of import substitution in Russia

  • Mironova O.A. Problems of economic security of Russia in the conditions of import substitution. Akademicheskii vestnik Rostovskogo filiala Rossiiskoi tamozhennoi akademii= Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian Customs Academy, 2018, no. 1 (30), pp. 35-42. (In Russian).
  • Connolly R., Hanson Ph. Import Substitution and Economic Sovereignty in Russia. Chatham House, 2016. 24 p.
  • Chernova O.A., Klimuk V.V. Rational import substitution in industry: assessment tools. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika=Bulletin of Tomsk State University. Economics, 2017, no. 38, pp. 43-52. (In Russian).
  • Ullrich K. Russia - import substitution during recession. KfW Research Focus on Economics, 2017, vol. 173, pp. 1-3.
  • Ershova I.G., Ershov A.Yu. Assessment of efficiency of measures of state regulation of import substitution policy. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya=Fundamental Research, 2016, no. 3-2, pp. 375-379. (In Russian).
  • Matveeva L.G., Chernova O.A., Klimuk V.V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of import substitution policy in industry: methodological tools. Vestnik Tikhookeanskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta=Bulletin of Pacific State Economic University, 2015, no. 3, pp. 3-13. (In Russian).
  • Bondarchuk N.V. Development of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects aimed at import substitution of products in high-tech industries within the framework of the state task for project # 3637. Predprinimatel’stvo i biznes v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoi nestabil’nosti: materialy III Mezhd. nauch. Kongressa [Entrepreneurship and business in conditions of economic instability: proceedings of the Third International Scientific Congress]. Moscow: Nauchnyi konsul'tant, 2015. Pp. 109-111. (In Russian).
  • Borovkova V.A., Tikhanovich M.O. Development of methods for assessing the effectiveness of the regional strategy of import substitution. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya= Financial Analytics: Problems and Solutions, 2017, vol. 10, no. 7(337), pp. 722-737. (In Russian).
  • Tatarkin D.A., Sidorova E.N., Trynov A.V. Simulation of structural changes in the region's economy based on the matrix of financial flows. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2017, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 218-234. (In Russian).
  • Chernova O.A. Assessing the feasibility of import substitution in production and technological chains. Izvestiya Dal'nevostochnogo federal'nogo universiteta. Ekonomika i upravlenie=Bulletin of the Far Eastern Federal University. Economics and Management, 2018, no. 1 (85), pp. 112-123. (In Russian).
  • Somov V.L., Markov V.A. Statistical analysis of the prospects of import substitution and competitive advantages of the real sector of the economy in the Saratov Oblast. Voprosy statistiki=Statistics Issues, 2016, no. 3, pp. 65-71. (In Russian).
  • Kolotov K.A. Neoindustrial’noe importozameshchenie v sisteme strukturnykh izmenenii ekonomiki: dis.. kand. ekon. nauk: 08.00.01 [Neo-industrial import substitution in the system of structural changes in the economy: Candidate of Sciences (Economics) dissertation]. Tomsk, 2018. 174 p.
  • Strizhkova L.A. The use of input-output tables in assessing the dependence of the Russian economy on imports and import substitution processes. Voprosy statistiki= Statistics Issues, 2016, no. 5, pp. 1-5. (In Russian).
  • Losev A.A., Solov'ev V.I., Sunchalin A.M. The system of indicators of import substitution effectiveness. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik=Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2017, no. 4, pp. 55-70. (In Russian).
  • Vyzhitovich A.M., Ershov P.A. Import substitution: relevant mechanisms and instruments. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost'=National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2015, vol, 11, no. 38 (323), pp. 52-64. (In Russian).
  • Kiliçaslan Y., Temurov I. Import substitution, productivity and competitiveness: evidence from Turkish and Korea manufacturing industry. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2016, vol. 3(2), pp. 67-83.
  • Aregbeshola R.A. Import substitution industrialization and economic growth - evidence from the group of BRICS countries. Future Business Journal, 2017, vol. 3, pp. 138-158.
  • Ko M.L., Plasmans J., Song-ken H. A Consistent Measure of Aggregate Import Substitution: Research Paper, 2014. 24 p.
  • Abhyankar H.G., Dharmadhikari S. "Import substitution" to "export promotion" - a paradigm shift. Finance Management, 2011, Аpril, pp. 32-39.
  • Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., Elliott K.A., Oegg B. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008. 248 p.
  • Korhonen I., Simola H., Solanko L. Sanctions, Counter-Sanctions and Russia - Effects on Economy, Trade and Finance. BOFIT Policy Brief. 2018. Vol. 4. 25 p.
  • Oleinikova I.N., Kholodkovskaya N.S. Import substitution in the system of mechanisms of sustainable development of regional economy. Vestnik Taganrogskogo instituta upravleniya i ekonomiki=Vestnik of Taganrog Management and Economics Institute, 2017, no. 1(25), pp. 16-24. (In Russian).
  • Gukova A., Anikina I., Chekalkina A., Skrynnikova I. Effects of economic sanctions on EU-Russia integration processes: selecting regional partners. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016. Ostrava, 2016. 1st edition. Pp. 290-299.
  • Agapova T.N. Methods and tools for monitoring the economic security of the region. Voprosy statistiki=Statistics Issues, 2001, no. 2, pp. 44-48. (In Russian).
  • Mel’nikov B.A. Food security: research methods, ways to achieve it. In: Problemy i tendentsii innovatsionnogo razvitiya agropromyshlennogo kompleksa i agrarnogo obrazovaniya Rossii: materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Problems and trends of innovative development of the agro-industrial complex and agricultural education of Russia: proceedings of the International research-to-practice conference]. 2012. Pp. 75-79. (In Russian).
  • Mal'tsev A.A. Export-import flows of agri-food and agricultural raw materials: comparative analysis of Soviet and Russian models. Agroprodovol'stvennaya politika Rossii=Agri-Food Policy of Russia, 2014, no. 4 (16), pp. 2-13. (In Russian).
Еще
Статья научная