Computer analysis of qualitative features in the formation of the socio-ideological structure of society

Автор: Gavrilets Yurii N., Tarakanova Iraida V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes

Статья в выпуске: 1 (55) т.11, 2018 года.

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The goal of the present paper is to develop a special methodology for analyzing and forecasting mass social interactions; the methodology can be used in various studies of how social positions and opinions of the population are formed. The paper proposes a technique of mathematical modeling of mass social interactions in the context of a comprehensive interplay of social contacts, under the impact of information channels and the external environment. The model is based on substantial ideas about cause-effect relationships between the size of social groups and their changes as a result of mutual transitions, the ideas about how the views of other participants and various media influence socio-psychological attitudes, and about possible external impact on the effectiveness of propaganda. In contrast to commonly used differential equations focusing on the analysis of the stationary state, we propose to analyze the group size dynamics with the use of simple modifications of Markov chains when participants do not move from one group to another uniformly, but are distributed through several time periods, and the probabilities of such a transition depend on the current state...


Attitude, ideological structure of society, social groups, social contacts, media, dynamics, probability of inter-group transitions

Короткий адрес:

IDR: 147224013   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.1.55.8

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